Sunday, January 29, 2012

Not Another Quirky Nanos Poll....

I'm getting a bit sick of these odd Nanos polls which end up dropping the NDP lower than they should be and the Liberals higher than they should be.

The topline numbers are 35.7% Con, 27.6% Lib, 25.2% NDP, 5.6% Bloc, 4.5% Grn. While one could accept the Liberal result because it's more-or-less within a standard MOE's breadth of some other pollsters who peg the Liberals around 25%. However, no other recent pollster shows the NDP below 28% - yet once again, Nik Nanos and co. have pegged them there.

Now granted, the topline changes are pretty minor compared to Nanos' last numbers. But let's check this out anyways, because there's two results that show just how off the mark Nanos' numbers are this time:

Ontario: 42.1% Con, 35.1% Lib, 16.9% NDP
Quebec: 29.0% NDP, 26.5% Lib, 24.1% Bloc, 15.1% Con

The two results underlined are utterly out of whack with every other pollster in the country! Just to make the point, here's all of January's polls concerning these numbers:

There's clearly something wrong here. As I've said before, I like Nanos and he's usually accurate during elections but these numbers are too far outside the established trends, and this happens consistently with Nanos - one poll make sense, the next doesn't.

Anyways in case you're wondering, the seat totals off of this are pretty favourable to us: 128 Conservatives, 90 Liberals, 74 NDP, 15 Bloc, 1 Green. This is because of the unlikely high-and-close numbers in Quebec, and the higher numbers in Ontario. The NDP, unfortunately for them, can't retain many of their seats when they're at 29% of the vote - a lot of those seats bleed to the Bloc.

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