Wednesday, January 25, 2012

HD Poll: 32-29-25

This is the second poll now to show the federal Conservatives blow 35%, the other being the recent EKOS polling done last month, which had them at 31.4%. In fact, HD almost perfectly mirrors EKOS' 31.4-29.5-24.8 result.

What does this mean? Well... it does somewhat confirm EKOS. However, not since their poll in May of 2011 have they had the Conservatives above 34%, which is what their last polling showed. Take it as you will, but I don't think the Conservatives are as low as 32% - but there is definitely a trend to be followed.

What is confirmed, like EKOS shows, is the NDP and Liberal numbers. Nearly every poll since late September has had the NDP between 27% and 31% - or four percent, roughly an average MOE. The Liberals are a bit more erratic, but they generally settle between 20% and 25% - and recently several pollsters have given us the higher end of that scale, with four of the last five polls being close to 25%.

The topline projection is 115 Cons, 106 NDP, 81 Liberals, 6 Bloc, 1 Greenie. The NDP remain boosted for two reasons: they still hold nearly 50 seats in Quebec because of vote splitting, and they have 21 seats in BC due to HD's results there. However, it's clear that if this were the real result in a general election, who got the mandate would be muddied; it's clear the NDP and especially the Liberals pick up many Conservative seats, far outnumbering the 115 MPs they have... but the Cons still have a plurality of seats and votes. Unlike 2008, where it was clear the Conservatives received the largest and clearest mandate from voters, this is just confusing. It'd make for a stable Parliament at least (NDP-Lib wise).

For giggles, here's my rolling projection as it stands right now (including this poll):


  1. An election four years away. This means the same as Hudack having the lead in Ontario. Zilch.

  2. That's not true... trends matter. Public opinion matters. How this affects politics matters. The only people it doesn't matter to is the disengaged and the cynical.

  3. It doesn't matter to the winners Volkov. Look at Layton's performance in the last election; those big swings in voter intention happen when trends are reenforced and capitalized upon. Timing and delivery, you know?

    The themes the Libs push closer to the end of that 4 year mandate will mean a lot more to them than this petty bullshit no one gives a damn about. In and out? Maxime's giant breasted gf? Rahim Jaffers excellent adventure? Nobody gives a shit about that and they shouldn't. Nobody cares about adscam either or Jean choking the hell out of some moron (which was pretty cool).

    Only hyperventilating neckbeards care that "AN HISTORIC MOTION OF CONTEMPT OF PARLIAMENT"=MAJORITY GOVERNMENT.

    And the left-wing pansy division of the liberal party can suck on that one, because we own your right flank.