Monday, January 30, 2012

CAQ Momentum Falling?

While it's not a totally established trend yet, it appears that the Coalition pour l'Avenir du Québec and it's leader François Legault are facing an increasing downward trend in Quebec's provincial polling:

Three polls out in January all give he CAQ below 33% of the vote, with the Parti libéral and the Parti Québécois at varying levels, but all higher than before. Québec Solidaire is also seeing a slight rise.

This is down quite a bit from the previous year's polling, which usually put the CAQ above at least 34% of the vote. It's even more when you consider that the combined CAQ and ADQ polling of September to November 2011 amounted to over 40% of the decided vote.

Unfortunately, the polls done so far are only Léger and CROP polling. But they're out at regular enough intervals to give us a good view of the situation in Quebec. Both are usually reliable so we'll continue on with this.

This comes in the wake of the ADQ merger, so it's not hard to draw a correlation between that event and this apparent decline. Is it possible that Legault's new association with the old adequistes is giving the new party a smell? Or are the pequistes, who just recently had a rah-rah meeting, and les libéraux just benefitting from some wind in their sails for some reason?


  1. 88 is an interesting choice for the background. A message, perhaps?

  2. Too many messages to count, really! Quebec's volatility, NDP and Cons riding high, an arrogant and corrupt government, a Liberal Party seen as terminally threatened, and how it can all change by the next election, for everyone involved. :)

  3. Plus '84 was just too blue to use as a background, I like variety in my colours.

  4. You should switch em around, have '93 for a while, and maybe even '68 for a bit.

  5. It could simply be that old 'now that they're real, they ain't that great' thing. You know how polls often reflect the popularity of a leader or party simply due to the fact they're seen to never govern or at least hold any responsibilty. It's a fantasy. Now that CAQ is now not only a reality, but they swallowed up another party, they ended up with instant seats without working too hard for them. This tends to put people off--more than your typical NDP crossing to Liberals kind of thing.

    Let's remember that unlike Mario Dumont in 2007, Legault is tried and tested--as MNA. He does have record to defend--once folks waik up, they'll see it ain't all that impressive.