Thursday, January 5, 2012

Canada at the End of 2011

We saw quite a lot of shifts this year, and I opted against doing a full polling round-up federally for 2011 since, frankly, it's been done to death and there are a lot of polls to input. If I had that sort of time, I would. However, I will be doing trend lines from this point onward, to be included soon fully on this blog which you can view and I'll update regularly.

However, here's where we stand at the end of 2011:

So by the end of the year, the Conservatives have, at least according to pollsters, lost their majority government in the 308-seat House of Commons. The NDP, as well, have lost some seats. That makes the Liberals the, erm, "big winners," though being stuck in third isn't much of a win in the larger context of things, is it?

Most of the drop has come from the shifts in Ontario, with the Liberals climbing up to 29% and the Cons dropping to just below 40%. However, the NDP have mostly stayed where they were back in May.
Quebec is slightly more interesting, with the NDP dropping 6% or so since May. Most of that has benefitted the Conservatives and Liberals, while the Bloc gain a seat though drop a tiny bit below their May mark.

The western provinces are more or less static. Continued domination of the Conservatives in Alberta and the Prairies (though the NDP "win" seats in Saskatchewan in my projection), and a healthy level of support in BC ahead of the Dippers keeps most of their seats their safe. The Liberals have seen very slight improvement but they always do between elections.

Atlantic Canada is both the wonkiest and the closest race. Polls consistently show a close race between all three parties, though it's closer between the Conservatives and NDP. The Liberals remain steady at 29% while the NDP and Conservatives swap some percentage points, but really it seems the benefit the Liberals more at this point, as they're better positioned in certain close races to take advantage of a split.

Overall however, the fact remains that the Conservatives maintain a lock on at least a plurality of votes and seats. That's a powerful argument for continued governance, no matter what you or I think, and it shows that they're continuing to outmaneuver the Opposition. And I suspect it'll be this way for a long while yet, folks.

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