Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Alberta in 2012

Following my Quebec projection a couple days ago, I thought I'd throw out my current projection for the province of Alberta, given that it is most definitely going to have an election called this year.

So as you can see, it's an easy PC victory under new Premier Alison Redford. 72 seats by sweeping every region, with only Edmonton, as per usual, being he largest concentration of the Opposition vote.

This as well at only 44% of the vote, down nearly 10% from 2008 when Ed Stelmach won the same number of seats. However, Alberta has new districts and my projection takes all of that into account, including in the map to the right here. Still, it's an overwhelming majority.

The Official Opposition is formed by Danielle Smith's Wildrose Party with 7 seats, all but one based in rural Alberta. Smith, according to my projection, is unable to win her own chosen seat of Highwood, while only two of the current four MLAs are defeated (Paul Hinman and Rob Anderson survive). They're so low because polls have only given the Wildrosers roughly 20% of the vote, which simply isn't enough to take them far against the PCs, even when they're below 50% of the vote.

The third party is, once again, the NDP, but with five seats instead of their current two. All of them are in Edmonton, and all of them were close seats in 2008 - Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood, Edmonton-Strathcona (they hold these seats), Edmonton-Beverley-Clearview (37% in 2008), Edmonton-Calder (31% in 2008), and Edmonton-Centre (19% in 2008). This is all won on just 13% of the vote.

The Liberals, who meanwhile still have 17% of the vote, drop down to 3 seats from the current eight they hold, all of them marginal. It's safe to say that the Liberals are in deep trouble in this province, and have to turn around their position in the polls if they expect to keep any seats come the election this year.

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