Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Abacus Poll: 37-28-21, and the "Bump"

Too many polls have come out this week, and I hope this will be the last one (oh, who am I kidding?).

Abacus Data shows an overhyped, within-the-margin-of-error rise for the Liberals that the Globe and Mail, in all its glory, is trying to make into a big story. Meanwhile, they decide not too pay attention to the fact that Abacus' Liberal poll results are below the most recent average, which shows the Liberals closer to 25%, not 21%, as I explained just before... oh nevermind.

In fairness, Abacus as I've seen tends to dumb down the Liberals a tad (it's part of my paranoia over online pollsters), so the three-point rise probably represents Abacus' answer to the "Liberal bump," which arguably has been occurring since mid-December or so (though one can also make that the four polls out in January, all post-convention, represent their own "bump"). Just like how EKOS' and Harris-Decima's super low Conservative numbers represent that party's decline trend.

Anyways, the topline seat numbers are 146 Cons, 98 NDP, 60 Liberals, 3 Bloc, 1 Greenie. That's not exactly fantastic, so the Globe should take a chill pill... or two, to be honest.

My one cavaet is that Abacus is showing 37% for the NDP in Quebec - which no other recent pollster, at least I think so, has shown at all. So, take that as you will.

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