Wednesday, December 14, 2011

NDP Collapse in Quebec?

Sorry for the triple post, but I can't help myself - has anyone seen this?
The Harris-Decima survey conducted for The Canadian Press indicates the New Democratic Party’s support in the province has plunged to 26 per cent – tied with the Bloc Québécois and down 16 points since the NDP swept 59 of Quebec's 75 seats in last May's election.
Twenty-six percent!? What??? That's an amazing drop, and one of 10% since the last HD poll in November.
While the NDP has gone down, other parties have gone up. The Bloc is up three points since May to 26 per cent in the province, the Liberals are up six points to 20 per cent, the Tories up just over one point to 17 per cent and the Greens up five points to seven per cent.
Wow, just.. what? How?

I haven't seen the full release yet (apparently the national numbers are 34% Con, 28% NDP, 22% Lib), but those Quebec numbers are enough right there to throw into doubt the NDP's ability to remain the Official Opposition, if they're true.

In terms of seats, the NDP would drop to only 14 seats in Quebec, scattered essentially to the winds, while the Bloc would take 32, the Liberals 17, and the Conservatives 10, while two independents take up the rest.

Overall, in my average projection, it would bring the NDP below the Liberals across-the-board, 62 to 67. That's amazing.

Harris-Decima usually has a good track record (usually), so I don't know what to think. It desperately needs to be confirmed by another pollster. Even Nanos had the NDP at 36% in Quebec. I'm trying to think of a conceivable reason why its happened but I can't.

What is going on in that province?

4 comments:

  1. The NDP party brass refused to listen to Mulcair when he pleaded for a special effort to be made in Quebec to register large numbers of party members there so that the province could have a fair say in the selection of the next leader. They also goofed big time by not throwing everything they could into Quebec in order to cement the Layton beachhead.

    Now they are paying the price.

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  2. I'm not buying it, Abacus also just had the NDP at 36 percent just couple of days ago. Even in Greg is hedging his bets saying thier is lots of valitility amoung Quebec voters and that this is no reason to panick. This says to me he's not really certain about the numbers.

    Still the biggest effect of this will be to boost Mulcair's campaign as dippers get nervous about Quebec. Word on twitter is he's out polling other leadership hopefuls so this could strengthen his hand.

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  3. That's an excellent point, Gyor. If there really was a downward trend in NDP support in Quebec, Mulcair would receive a lot more attention to what he is saying, wouldn't he?

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  4. I wouldn't count the NDP out just yet, even if these numbers are true I think it means lick till the NDP get their new permanent leader. I wouln't be surprised if Thomas Muclair wins and brings these numbers back to 40%.

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