The Harris-Decima survey conducted for The Canadian Press indicates the New Democratic Party’s support in the province has plunged to 26 per cent – tied with the Bloc Québécois and down 16 points since the NDP swept 59 of Quebec's 75 seats in last May's election.Twenty-six percent!? What??? That's an amazing drop, and one of 10% since the last HD poll in November.
While the NDP has gone down, other parties have gone up. The Bloc is up three points since May to 26 per cent in the province, the Liberals are up six points to 20 per cent, the Tories up just over one point to 17 per cent and the Greens up five points to seven per cent.Wow, just.. what? How?
I haven't seen the full release yet (apparently the national numbers are 34% Con, 28% NDP, 22% Lib), but those Quebec numbers are enough right there to throw into doubt the NDP's ability to remain the Official Opposition, if they're true.
In terms of seats, the NDP would drop to only 14 seats in Quebec, scattered essentially to the winds, while the Bloc would take 32, the Liberals 17, and the Conservatives 10, while two independents take up the rest.
Overall, in my average projection, it would bring the NDP below the Liberals across-the-board, 62 to 67. That's amazing.
Harris-Decima usually has a good track record (usually), so I don't know what to think. It desperately needs to be confirmed by another pollster. Even Nanos had the NDP at 36% in Quebec. I'm trying to think of a conceivable reason why its happened but I can't.
What is going on in that province?