Thursday, December 29, 2011

Last Poll of 2011 - 36.5% Con, 28.7% NDP, 25.6% Lib

This is, of course, a lovely Nanos poll which shows the Liberals somewhat dropping from heights we shouldn't be at in our current state to more-or-less reasonable levels, though as we'll see, there are still some questions remaining.

The topline numbers are as shown, and in terms of seats that would give the Conservatives 140, the NDP 92, the Liberals 72, the Bloc 3, and Lizzy May.

Key things here are, once again, Ontario and Quebec, with BC playing a side role here.

Unlike last time, Ontario's numbers look a lot less weird. Nanos has the Cons at 34.5% (down from 37.2%), the Liberals at 31.8% (down from 38.8%), and the NDP at 29.5% (up from 19.6%). The higher NDP number makes general sense to me, and these results are similar to what Harris-Decima showed not too long ago (36-31-27). All in all, the November Nanos poll was, and will remain, a likely bad sample/voodoo poll, especially for Ontario.

Quebec, however, is another story. There, the NDP lead with 33.4% (down from 37.7%), the Liberals are again second with 22.9% (barely down from 23.6%), the Cons third with 20.8% (up from 20.1%), and the Bloc languishing, as they do in every Nanos poll, with just 19.9% (though that's up from 15.9%).

Like other pollsters, Nanos is now showing the NDP decreasing in Quebec to about 30-35%, with the Liberals and Conservatives battling each other closer towards the 15-20% mark. However, unlike others, Nanos continues to show the Bloc below 20%, compared to 26% in the three polls to come out in December for Quebec, which all showed the Bloc at 26% (those polls being Abacus, Harris-Decima, and Leger). Even a CROP poll from November had them at 21%.

Coming to our side show, BC shows a very tight race with 34.4% Con, 33.2% NDP, and 22.8% Liberal. The numbers are not entirely crazy, but both other pollsters out this month have shown a wider gap and a lower Liberal number (Abacus had us at 7%!).

So, I don't know. Nanos has a good reputation and Nik did an excellent job during the federal and provincial elections, but once we get out into the interim periods here, his numbers tend to break trends, then come back, then break trends again. But, they are our final numbers for the year, and overall, pollsters are showing us being higher than May 2nd. That's good news as we head into a convention, and bad news for the NDP, who face a trending loss in Quebec that, unless they move up higher in the Rest of Canada, means they're in trouble.

And the Conservatives? Well, they're just laughing. Smug bastards.

When I get back from my trip next week, I'll be doing a total round-up for 2011, including some fancy trend charts, for all those interested.

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