Thursday, December 29, 2011

Is This Actually BC? Eh?

I know the news is now somewhat old, but there was a funky Forum Research poll out on December 15th that showed the situation in British Columbia is a whole lot more complicated than first glance.

The numbers show:
34% BC NDP
23% BC Liberal
23% BC Conservative
15% Green

Wha... who... huh? That's an absolute shocker, given that the average race so far is roughly 40% NDP, 35% Liberal, and 15% Con. I didn't think Christy Clark was doing that badly.

What would happen if these numbers were true? According to my sort of roughshod projection (not at home, so I have the base system, not the refined one), you'd get 54 NDP, 16 Conservatives, 12 Liberals, 1 Green, and 2 Independents (from the 5% "others").

Now, that's a tad insane, and Adrian Dix's majority is only because of heavy, massive vote-splitting between Clark and Con leader John Cummins. The Green comes from West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, one of their stronger seats provincially.

But yeah, who can say what this is? Granted, it is Forum's first foray into BC provincial polling, and the Green number is nearly twice as high as other pollsters have shown over the year. You could, more or less, say this is an outlier and be comfortably backed up.

But let's make this clear - the BC Conservatives are not to be taken as a joke party they were before. They're a protest vote, and as we've seen federally, all it takes is one misstep and the protest party is ahead of you in the game.


  1. Whether it be provincial polls or Federal polls, BC needs to taken with a grain of salt.

    1) Federal Liberal support in BC tends to be massively overstated in between elections.

    2) Green party support both Federally and Provincially is always overstated. The Green party always polls over 10%, but never gets over 10% of the vote. High numbers for the Greens are not a good indicator of just how many people will vote Green as they are a sign of dissatisfaction with the dominant political parties -- which is always high in BC.

    That being said, the rise of the Provincial Conservative party is very real and BC Liberals are worried. In the fall the Liberals even ran ads targeting the Conservatives.

    Now, if the BC Liberals were smart, they would make Cummins out to be a complete weirdo. That should not be difficult. For Cummins is a complete weirdo. Forget provincial jurisdiction etc., the BC Libs need to remind people in the Lowermainland that Cummins thinks homosexuality is a choice and that Cummins stated the following. “I’m pro-life, I’m protraditional marriage, that’s my view"

  2. And we have a newer NRG Research poll, released December 23, with the following result:

    36% BC NDP
    32% BC Liberal
    19% BC Conservative
    13% Other

    Lots of disenchantment with the two primary parties in BC.

  3. NRG Research? Never heard of them...

    But thanks, bobljeffries. I'll put that up right away.