I'm coming across a bit of a quandry when attempting to project the province of Quebec's seats that takes into account a proper, regional balance of the Coalition Avenir du Quebec's new-found success.
My original model followed a basic average of the amount of voter drift between the older parties and the CAQ in three "super-regions" - Montreal, Capitale-Nationale, and the rest of Quebec - which of course broke down further in the smaller regions which make up those regions, modeled somewhat after the patterns of the electorate following Action Democratique's breakthrough success in 2007 (since it follows that the CAQ and ADQ, essentially the same parties both ideologically and now physically, would see breakthroughs in similar fashions as the ADQ did in 2007).
This, of course, lead to a somewhat patchwork-quilt style projection system that gave the CAQ huge victories of 90 to over 100 seats. Something of a probable conclusion when you're leading 35% to 22%, but still, given how abstract the calculation actually was, it was essentially theoretical and nothing more.
Now, with the ADQ merger/subversion, I have the opportunity to basically use the ADQ's 2008 base of support as the CAQ's base, which gives the model something of a more reality-based calculation to go off of. After all, what better way to model regional patterns of vote except through the results of an election? And given the CAQ's lack of existence in 2007/2008, that's kind of hard to do.
However, the difference was, to say the least, fairly noticeable when I put in the newest CROP poll (39-28-18-9, just fyi) into the models:
Now you might be wondering - why such the big difference? Its come the fact that the regional "vote drifting" is not uniform in the province of Quebec, at least according the polls I've seen. According to this model, essentially there are a lot more votes in Montreal that will go to the CAQ than you'd expect if the old ADQ base simply rose up (about an 8% difference), which makes a big difference. Meanwhile, voters in the Capitale-Nationale region are supposedly more willing to stick with the Liberals and the PQ according to the polls, than they would if the ADQ rose again (a 10% difference for the PLQ). Then, if course, in the rest of Quebec, though there isn't a hilarious difference in terms of actual vote levels, vote drift is enough to hand the CAQ a huge amount of seats.
So, I'm not really sure what to do here. The ADQ model is based somewhat in reality, but to me, it would just penalize the CAQ too much in Montreal if there truly was some sort of shift between pequistes and caquistes on the magnitude that the polls keep showing.
And given the overbearing results that the federal election showed when Bloquiste and Liberal support shifted to the NDP in Quebec, I'm not convinced that an ADQ based model is the right way to go.
Anyone else have an opinion on this? Not being from Quebec (despite being an avid fan), I don't know the regional intricacies and local voting patterns. I think both models would predict well, but who knows right?