Monday, November 7, 2011

Sask Votes 2011 - With a Liberal twist

I will be going over the Saskatchewan results tonight, and I also have a little projection running which, using all the polls so far, gives the following numbers:

SaskParty - 62.7%, 44 seats
NDP - 32.6%, 14 seats
Green - 2.5%
Liberal - 1.7%
Others - 0.4%


Nothing special, the same as 308.com's more or less. But here's something that this blog will be focusing on in particular - the fate of the Saskatchewan Liberals.


In alphabetical order, here are my projections for the vote totals in the 9 ridings the Liberals are running in:


 As you can see, the only riding the Liberals are competitive in is Saskatoon Meewasin, and that's only because former leader David Karwacki ran there in 2007, and made it a three way race.

But since Karwacki is no longer running there, I suspect the numbers to drop pretty fast. I would actually say that 20% in more like 10%, if even that. We'll see what happens, because it could go either way - but more than 20% is an impossibility for Nathan Jeffries, currently running in the riding now.

Erstwhile Liberal leader Ryan Bater is running in The Battlefords, but based on swings from 2007, he should only get 8% this time. But because Bater is running there, and because that's the only place he's seen fit to be, it could get interesting - I would say Bater has a shot at maybe 20% in the riding (he got 12% in 2007), and could muddy the result in what would otherwise be an easy Sask Party pick-up. But the low visibility of the Liberals overall in the province will hurt them, and Bater's chances of picking the riding up are extremely low.

So tonight, I'll be watching the results come in and we'll see how things go. It won't be a livebog, but any interesting updates during the results will come through my Twitter, while at the end of the night I'll cover what it all actually means.

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