Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Understanding the Newfoundland Results

Much like the recent Ontario election, there's a big urban-rural divide in Newfoundland and Labrador.

St. John's
PC - 40,143 (54.5%) - 10 seats
NDP - 28,879 (39.2%) - 4 seats
Lib - 4,606 (6.3%) - 0 seats

Rest of Newfoundland
PC - 86,322 (57.9%) - 27 seats
Lib - 36,815 (24.7%) - 6 seats
NDP - 25,438 (17.1%) - 1 seat

That's a pretty big disconnect between the two regions, though it shows that the Liberals are relevant outside of St. John's, which is how they managed to hold on to the Official Opposition.

So, what does this mean? For the NDP, it means they have a fantastic base in St. John's, but they need to expand outside of it before they make any major headway. The fact is they only increased their vote 4% outside of St. John's.

For the Liberals, they have major issues in St. John's, and their rural-focused campaign barely saved their asses. If they ever want the be relevant again, they need to work on St. John's.

And for the PCs? Well, one can say that Dunderdale doesn't need to worry - but the fact is, in a down year, which they will get eventually, they could face a strong urban swing from the NDP, and a strong rural swing from the Liberals. In the end, instead of the PCs dominating both areas, they could end up third as the other two parties play to their strengths and squeeze the PCs out.

1 comment:

  1. The Avalon Pennisula is just over 10,000 kms with a population of 257,223...that is 51% out of 500,000 pop for all the province. The land area of all the province is 405,720 kms. The Avalon does not know the rest of the island exists except when it is time to vote. The people in St. John's have an awful attitude toward what lies beyond the Avalon. The rest of the island is looked upon as uneducated and a bunch of jackatars. There are thousand and thousand of Newfoundlanders working on the mainland of Canada who do not work in Fort McMurry nor are they from the Avalon. It is the Avalon Pennisula who caused the rift between Newfoundland and Harper. All Premiers except one has held their seat in Corner Brook on the West Coast of the Island...the part that is a continuation of the Appalachian Mountians. The College in Corner Brook has been applying for University status for a long time. They are continually turned down. Why? Memorial University will lose money and St. John's will lose money. It is a sad, sad state of affairs in Newfoundland. Someone with ethics needs to come to the fore to lead the Province out of its present state..or a trench needs to be dug across the arm from the Avalon to the rest of the island and it be sent adrift. The Avalon is nothing but a parasite upon the rest of the Island. The ROCK is the Avalon, not the rest of the island. The government in St. John's is nothing but hard-headed biggots who think they are the be all and end all of the island. A bunch of people who call themselves Irish. A bunch of people who remember the potatoe famine. A bunch of people all viing for the Premiership so they can line their pockets so that they can retire to the Southern United States...Danny Williams exception. He made his money before becoming Priemer. But a Preimer who set about to cause nothing but friction the Irish way. Dunderdale will not be any better. It will be the same old, same old. A bunch of people who cannot see beyond the end of their nose.