Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Projections for Manitoba 2011

Manitoba's election is utterly down the wire - but it's pretty much looking like yet another term for the Manitoba NDP and Premier Greg Selinger, who's running his first election.

I've taken the time to project the race results for today's election, and they're here in PDF format. I have all ridings there, and I predict an NDP majority - it seems unlikely Hugh McFayden's PCs will get enough support to get the ten or so ridings needed to secure government for themselves. It's not impossible, but it is improbable.

The Liberals, meanwhile, are suffering, and I expect them to get under 10% of the vote, though I believe leader Jon Gerrard will win his seat, and they may just be able to win in another riding if they're lucky.

** Just so everyone knows, the riding of Logan is actually predicted for 55% NDP, 19% Lib, 16% PC - not 55% NDP and 49% Lib, that's a typo

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