Monday, October 3, 2011

PEI Goes to the Polls

And the fate of the province's Liberal Premier, Robert Ghiz, looks pretty certain at this point. Here's why:

Screenshot off of 308.com
Just a basic average of these polls gives the PEI Liberals 55% of the vote, which is over what they got in 2007.

Eric Grenier of 308.com pegs the race at 52.9% for the Liberals, 34.2% for the Progressive Conservatives lead by Morrell-Mermaid MLA Olive Crane (and the only one of the four PC incumbents that stayed on), 8.1% for the Island New Democrats lead by James Rodd, 4.1% for the Greens lead by Sharon Labchuk, and 0.7% for the "Others," which is a couple of independents and the Island Party.

This would be good for 26 seats for the Liberals (up three from 2007), and one for the PCs, that one being Crane's seat in the eastern part of the island. You can see Eric's riding-by-riding projections here.

I was thinking of doing something up, but I decided against it; I've opted instead to do last-day projections for Newfoundland, Manitoba, and Ontario, as well as Saskatchewan when they go in November. But PEI is just too small, and the outcome is just too easy to expect.

However, I don't expect a clean sweep of the province. While Crane is utterly useless as PC leader, I have a few ideas about what might happen. Here's a short checklist of my predictions:

- the PCs will hold onto Morrell-Mermaid, Montague-Kilmuir, and Georgetown-St. Peter's
- the Island NDP will make something of a race out of Charlottetown-Victoria Park, though possibly letting the PCs through instead of themselves
- the Greens will fall back into fourth again
- Kelly's Cross-Cumberland will be the Green's best riding

Nothing important, but a checklist nonetheless. I may or may not liveblog the results tonight - stay tuned! Maybe we could all be in for a surprise.

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