Thursday, October 27, 2011

Ontario - Screwed Once Again By Harper?

The most recent modification to the Harper government's seat redistribution plan will now give Ontario an extra 13 seats (to 119), Alberta 6 (to 34), British Columbia 5 (to 41), and Quebec 3 (to 78).

Now, this plan has gone through different variations, the first giving Ontario 18 extra seats, and that moved down as the Conservatives attempted to accommodate Quebec's desire to keep their MPs at a representative level (23% of the population - 23% of MPs). The second plan had moved to the 13-6-5 plan, with Quebec gaining 2, and now the actual tabled legislation will contain 3 extra seats for Quebec.

Consider these numbers, based off of Stats Can's quarterly population estimates:

Ontario - 119 seats - 112,378/seat
BC - 41 seats - 111,544/seat
Alberta - 34 seats - 111,157/seat
Quebec - 78 seats - 102,303/seat

Canada avg. pop./seat - 102,934

Now, I understand and have initially supported the idea behind pinning Quebec's HoC representation to its actual population, but am I missing something here? Why is it that the three provinces with the largest growth are given less room, just to accommodate Quebec?

Think of it this way. If Ontario had been granted the 124 seats. The average then? 107,847. This would have given Ontario ample room between now and the next redistribution to grow to the 125K it's around now that's apparently inconsiderable.

If Quebec had stayed at it's 75 seats, they'd have 106,395 citizens per riding - below the higher total if it had been given to Ontario. Yes, Quebec would not have had the 23 or so % of the population represented, but that's going down as Alberta, BC, and Ontario grow larger anyways. Eventually, Quebec will be at the 22% it would get under the alternate plan, and it would be surprising if that occurred between now and the next census.

So Ontario, BC, and Alberta, as they continue to grow, are per riding going to be squeezed again, while Quebec gets tonnes of room that it more than likely won't need.

And yet, nearly half the voters of these three provinces (well over half in AB) gave their votes to the guys perpetrating this in May, while under 20% gave their votes to the Conservatives in Quebec. At the very least you'd think the Conservatives would follow where their votes are.

**UPDATE**

The plan is actually now +6 seats for BC and Alberta, +15 for Ontario, and +3 for Quebec - but Ontario is still under-represented by the full numbers, and it's still ridiculous.

4 comments:

  1. The seats are being redistributed to ensure future Con majorities, anyway. Pure and simple. Elizabeth May proved as much when she got her hands on some newsletter from Saanich-Gulf Islands Con riding association.

    As for the 3 Quebec seats, I'm betting that one will split Mount-Royal for the simple reason being that it will get them their first Con seat--isolate Hampstead and Cote-St-Luc where the Jewish voters all fawned over Steve's "I luv Israel more than Canada" schtick.

    The other two would most likely be around the South-shores of Quebec City, where Cons are still prevalent (Levis-Bellechasse, Beauce, and further along the 73 and a turn at rte 112 toward Paradis's riding of Megantic-L'Erable, which borders the Beauce).

    a concept everyone should grasp; the original plan to redistribute seats had nothing, zilch, zero, nada to do with democracy (after all, democracy is something that doesn't exist in Harper's repertoire)or fair representation and everything to do with taking that next step to firmly cementing their place as the so-called "natural governing party".

    And here I thought cons believed in smaller government.

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  2. For so many reasons that it would be difficult to list, CK does not know what he is talking about.

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  3. Being that someone had to cop-out to the atlantic provinces and guarentee that no province could ever loose seats from their 1981 total or have fewer than they have senators, someone has to be underrepresented

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  4. CK Cot-St-Luc and hamstead doesn't make a riding. They don't have enough people. I even looked at the poll by poll, and all areas around the conservative vote of Cot-St-Luc all vote Liberal. Mont Royal isn't going to get any more blue Even with redistricting.

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