Thursday, October 6, 2011

Ontario 2011 - Full Predictions

The Blunt Object's blog is predicting a Ontario Liberal majority government, with 58 seats being given to the incumbent party of Premier Dalton McGuinty. 29 seats are won by the Progressive Conservatives lead by Tim Hudak, an increase of three from 2007, and 20 seats are won by Andrea Horwath's New Democrats, who double their caucus.

The seat range for the Liberals is between 51 to 61 seats, ensuring the party wins at least a strong minority. The PCs will take between 26 and 35 seats, either keeping their current caucus or adding new members, but not enough to form a government. And the NDP have a seat range of 19 to 22 seats, ensuring the NDP will at least double their caucus this time around.

These numbers are almost identical to what's Eric Grenier is showing, which puts me in good company. Though we differ on the actual percentage of the vote, the seats are more or less the same.

This is all compared to "Pre-Debate Ontario," where Ontarians were looking at a McGuinty minority with a strong PC opposition, and the NDP just happy. However, the PCs have collapsed roughly 3% since the debates, while McGuinty's fortunes rose. Andrea Horwath has also received something of a bump - however, it's limited by how much McGuinty has managed to gain at the same time.

Below is a quick summary of the projections, which you can also find over to the right. You can also click this to see my riding-by-ridng projections. And for those who need visual cues, there is a map below to click on as well.

I hope everyone's voted, and let's cross our fingers for a McGuinty majority tonight! Together we can keep moving forward!

I'm off to vote myself.


  1. I've updated my personal projection

  2. Hey Volkov, what was the seat count at dissolution?

  3. 70-25-10, with two seats vacant (Essex and Mississauga East-Cooksville, both Liberal).