Monday, October 31, 2011

“Now we can confidently say there is trend in favour of Bob Rae at the current time”

Lol, what?
“Nycole Turmel hasn’t really caught the imagination of voters. ... She is there minding the shop but her personal numbers are not necessarily moving.” 

This means, however, that Mr. Rae is winning second place by “default,” Mr. Nanos added. 

Asked to judge the leaders on trust, competence and vision for the country, 30.4 per cent of respondents said Mr. Harper was the most trustworthy leader, compared to 16.3 per cent for Mr. Rae and 11.2 per cent for Ms. Turmel. Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is at 10.5 per cent. 

On the competence, Mr. Harper leads with 37 per cent support compared to 18.3 per cent for Mr. Rae, 6.8 per cent for Ms. Turmel and 3.9 per cent for Ms. May. 

Mr. Nanos also asked poll respondents about vision. He found that 29.8 per cent said Mr. Harper has the best vision for Canada’s future, followed by Mr. Rae with 15.3 per cent, Ms. Turmel with 13.3 per cent and Ms. May with 6.6 per cent. 

Although, Mr. Harper is well ahead of his opponents on this front, the Nanos numbers show his score has dropped significantly since last month when 36.8 per cent said he had the best vision for Canada. 
Let's not encourage Mr. Rae, now - he is just winning second place by default, after all.

But it speaks a lot about the sadness of the NDP's current situation when the third party leader hated by pretty much all of Ontario can beat out their much-touted interim leader in personal ratings and they end up a poor third in Ontario itself. Tells you something, don't it?

Speaking of the polling numbers, it's a standard post-Rapture poll, with the Conservatives at a healthy 37.7%, the NDP at 30%, and the Liberals at 23.4%. For a projection, this poll would give the Conservatives a minority gov't with 144 seats to the NDP's 100, the Liberal's 61, and Lizzy May.

Three notable trends out of Nanos:

1. This is the second poll in a row with the Liberals at a statistical tie with the NDP in BC, the last being 26.1 to the NDP's 22.3, this one being 26.2 to the NDP's 26.1, with the margin of error at about 8% in both. Is this the beginning of a trend in BC towards the Liberals, one that was witnessed in the early 2011 campaign before the Orange Wave emanated out of Quebec?

2. The Bloc is now struggling after being just above or under 20% in the last four polls for the province - Nanos' last poll had them at 14.4%, CROP has them at 15%, Leger at 21%, and Nanos' latest with 15.2%. I think it's safe to say that the Bloc is, at this time at least, dead in Quebec.

3. The NDP's Ontario numbers are always poor but there hasn't been a recent poll except for that one Ekos poll that has given the NDP a clear advantage over the Liberals (aka not outside of the margin of error), and only a couple that gave a second place finish at all. That's hard to manage with the supposed scourge Rae at the helm.

I guess there was news after all.

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