Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Ipsos Gives OLP 10-point lead, supports Ekos

Wow, who would think you would see this from Ipsos Reid, on an incumbent premier who has not had the best eight year legacy attached to his name?

A ten-point lead, so close to election day? That's pretty good confirmation of momentum if I ever saw one.

In my projection, this gives the Ontario Liberals 62 seats, while the PCs drop to 24 seats, and the NDP sit with 21.

That's right - the PCs nearly swept out by the Orange Wave. Whodda thunk?

And just to point out, Ontario pollsters are awesome for their accuracy - Ipsos last poll before the 2007 election was 43-32-18, the results were 42-32-17.

We'll see if it holds.


  1. While I'm very happy to see that Hudak is getting smashed into bits, I am not happy that McGunity will get re-elected to another majority. Public transit has fallen to bits ever since Harris cut the funding. Ontario remains the only province in Canada that does not fund the operation of transit out of general revenues (each year the gas tax is assigned, but that is not a guarantee, and if they "forget" next year, literally, we will not get a cent)

  2. It's actually not that certain that he will win a majority. I've drawn up a projection, Volkov and I will discuss it before it's posted.

  3. For the record, I'm pulling for a Liberal minority backed by the NDP. Imagine Liberal all-day GO trains with NDP 50% provincial funding for the operation of public transit. Not only will you be able to zip into downtown on a comfy train but you can even find a bus to get to the station! I do not support anything that puts "Government" and "Hudak" in the same sentence unless the word "never" is in there. I also am no socialist, I am a capitalist, and I would not support an NDP majority.