Monday, October 3, 2011

Ekos - OLP - 37.8, PCPO 30.6, ONDP 22.7

Ah, good ol' Ekos - just when you needed a new spin thrown your way.
The Liberal lead over the Progressive Conservatives appears to be solidifying as the parties approach the Oct. 6 election, according to an EKOS Research poll released to iPolitics Monday.

... “Certainly, the Liberals are in the lead, and I think they improved their position,” said EKOS president Frank Graves. “I think we’re seeing a steady improvement in Liberal fortunes in the last part of the campaign.”
The last poll EKOS conducted, which was released to iPolitics on Sept. 27, showed the Liberals with 35 per cent, the PCs with 31 per cent and the NDP with 25 per cent.

Graves points out that the televised leaders’ debate, which occurred Sept. 27, did not seem to have a huge effect on voter intention.
I mean, I don't know how much faith to put in this, but Ekos is somewhat OK as a pollster, and I find them good in identifying trends overall - which leads me to conclude that the OLP is pulling slightly ahead in the final days.

But, because of the oddness surrounding it's circumstance, I'm only putting it at half the weight I would normally. Time will tell if this is the right decision. Other pollsters, however, like today's Nanos, will be fully weighted.

If you're curious, these numbers would result in 60 seats for the OLP, 27 seats for the PCs, and 20 seats for the NDP. These numbers are reinforced by the fact that roughly 60% find Ontario is moving in the "right direction."

2 comments:

  1. Frank Graves is an excellent pollster. He was the first pollster to predict the NDP surge in the Federal election and he actually predicted the NDP seat total within 2 seats when other polsters were still doubting that the NDP surge was real.

    Though I certainly favor NDP policies over Liberal ones as a general rule, I would really love to see Hudak go down to a big defeat as a repudiation of his Tea Party style and ultra-right policies on such things as education, labour issues, and his stand on abortion which he has managed to keep out of the mainstream media. I think it was profoundly dishonest to attack the Liberal leader repeatedly on the health tax and the HST when at the same time he said he would leave them in place. A big defeat for Hudak might help the PCs in Ontario see that they need to dispense with the US style politics.

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  2. Oh, I agree - Graves is an excellent pollster, and he picks up on trends well. However, his poll is definitely an outlier at this point. That makes it suspect.

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