Monday, September 12, 2011

Two Polls Give Ontario Grits Smiles

One from Ipsos Reid and one from Nanos Research confirm the trend seen in the Harris-Decima poll that was out only a few days ago, which blew the race in Ontario wide open.

First, the Ipsos Reid poll gives the Ontario Liberals the lead with 38%, with the PCs statistically tied at 37%. The NDP are behind at 24%, while the Greens are at a paltry 1% of the vote.

Using my projection system, the immediate numbers given are 54 Liberals, 33 PCs, and 20 Dippers - or the very barest of majority governments for Dalton McGuinty.

Next, the Nanos poll gives the Liberals an awesome lead with 38.1%, compared to 34.7% for the PCs. The New Democrats sit with 24.3% and the Greens with another paltry 2.3% (what is going on with them?).

In terms of seats, this would give a bit of a clearer majority for the Grits, who would get 56 seats, compared to 31 seats for the Tories, and 20 seats, again, for the New Democrats.

What does this mean? Well, for one, the momentum is with the Ontario Liberals. This is good, because its very hard for an unpopular two-term incumbent to ever gain momentum. The question is now: can we keep it?

Secondly, it means that neither the PCs nor the NDP are to be discounted. Though they're down from where they were, the Hudak PCs are still a threat, and the largest threat, to McGuinty's government. They can easily pick up momentum and I assume they will once this and this die down as issues.

In addition, the NDP are riding high. Why? Various reasons, but I suspect a lot of it has to do with the usual crop of strategic voters the NDP sheds saying they'll stay with their party this time. Whether that changes in the coming weeks will remain to be seen - but, even if it does, the NDP has lots of room to grow still.

The pollsters are just starting up now, and expect to see more polls of this nature as the campaign progresses. It's going to be an interesting election, folks.

(Oh, and the aggregate projection has been updated.)


  1. Seeing the PC's so low is good. Seeing the NDP and Liberals doing well however still makes me feel sick. I Equate the PC Party to being stabbed 3 times with a sharp sword in the cajones; the NDP being stabbed 2 times with a knife in the eye; and the Ontario Liberals being stabbed once with scissors in the lower leg. Now of course I'd choose the latter, but ideally we can have a party that wont
    A - screw the cities
    B - leave the screwed cities in place for many years then only decide to help them, just a bit, before election time
    C - help them, not to help them, but because of some perverted socialist ideology.
    Of these options, B is the best, but ideally, the cities will get the help they need.
    I may support the Greens is the PC Party is not a threat to win, and, if the NDP is not a threat to take my riding. The problem with the Greens is they are an unknown, are they pragmatic, or are they ideologues? We don't know.

    Frankly, the only result I'd support would be about 35 seats for each of the 3 major parties. This way we could get the NDP to help the Cities stop crumbling (ever wonder why Toronto has no money? Compare Toronto's budget to Montreal and Vancouver and Calgary and Halifax. The difference is simple - The province expects cities to pay for things no other province does. In addition, IN ADDITION, I emphasise, each and every province and each and every state in North America, as well as nations over in Europe, give cities funding for the operation of public transit out of general revenue. Ontario does not.

    Ontario goes out of it's way to screw cities over, and none of the parties, even the Green Party, makes me comfortable with the idea that they can fix the problem.

    I plan to literally be holding my nose when I vote; And chances are; I'll be voting Liberal.

  2. That's OK Teddy - Dalton will take any vote he can get at this point.

    Who's your local candidate, anyways?