Monday, September 5, 2011

Tories lead Ont. Libs by just 3.5% - Nanos

Though they're both down from their last poll thanks to an NDP jump (or, possibly just a resettling, given that Nanos had them lower than other pollsters before) Nanos has the race in Ontario at just 3.5% difference between the two main parties.

The numbers are 35.4% PC (-6.7%), 31.9% Lib (-5.7%), 22.8% NDP (+8.8%), and 4.1% Green (+0.7%). As I said, this could be a simple resettling of the NDP's numbers from that Nanos poll before. It seems realistic to me.

I plugged these numbers into the projection system and I came out with 45 PCs, 42 Liberals, and 20 Dippers. Interestingly enough, and probably a good thing for my projection, it followed closely with the numbers on this page provided by Nanos.

In particular, Nanos has in Toronto 36.5% Lib, 22.9% NDP, and 22.1% PC. The projection has 34.2% Lib, 27% PC, and 26.9% NDP (in terms of seats, 13 Libs, 6 NDP, 4 PCs). While it's different, it's pretty close for a generalized projection without specific regional numbers inputted.

However, my regions are a lot different than what Nanos has. I may change this in the future, but for reference, in the 905 area code I have the PCs with 14 seats and 38.6%, and the Libs with 7 seats and 34.4%. That's where it's won or lost, keep that in mind.

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