Wednesday, September 28, 2011
This is Pre-Debate Ontario
Pre-debate Ontario has the Ontario Liberals sitting with a minority government, down 21 seats; the Hudak PCs win 37 seats, up 11; and the Horwath NDP win 20, up 10.
At this point in the game, it looks pretty good for Premier McGuinty and co., especially considering the dire straits they were in before. And yes - even though they lag in the popular vote (36.1% to 36.2%), they simply have their vote distributed in a more efficient manner than the PCs do, who tend to run up vote in their own ridings, or simply have to come back from to far behind. The same goes for the NDP, who like the PCs, on a jump of about 5-6%, can gain about 10 extra seats.
Anyways, keep this all in mind, because the final week of this campaign will be when Ontarians decide to make up their minds on who is best suited to lead the province - or who isn't, in some cases.
Here's a PDF file of my riding-by-riding projections - the PDF is a little messy, but all the numbers are correct. Look it over now, and I'll see how it compares come both the pre-E-day numbers (basically, October 5th), and of course, the day after.