Thursday, September 8, 2011

Other provinces have elections too: Manitoba edition

In an utter surprise to this arrogant central Canadian, four other provinces and two territories are holding elections this October in what promises to be an interesting campaign among the provinces post-Rapture.

Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, the Yukon, and the Northwest Territories, are all holding fresh elections alongside Ontario. The difference between them and Ontario, however, is that none of them will really feature a groundbreaking event.

But before we get too far, let's start with Manitoba, where if the polls so far are any indication, seems to be heading towards a close race between the incumbent Manitoba New Democrats, who are seeking a fourth majority term under Gary Doer's replacement, and the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives, lead by Hugh McFayden, who was also in charge during the 2007 election.

Then there's Jon Gerrard, leader of the Manitoba Liberals. I have a lot of respect for Gerrard, who despite the tough situation he's placed in, is making the most of it. The Liberals won two seats in 2007, Gerrard's seat of River Heights and the seat of Inkster, held by Kevin Lamoureux, who now happens to be the MP for Winnipeg North. This leaves Gerrard as the only incumbent, and not a heck of a lot of prospects to look forward to.

Because of Manitoba's size, any projection system would be relatively useless. Because of the low margin of error that exists in polls, as well as in the tiny ridings, projections can't be trusted. There's also the fact that Manitoba also had a riding distribution, meaning we can only guess how a riding's voters will act this election.

Nevertheless, Eric Grenier has gone ahead and done it, and it's mightily appreciated. Even if you can suspect the results, you could generally pinpoint which ridings contain prospects for which parties.

For example, looking at those numbers, you can see that the Liberals have prospects in only four ridings:

River Heights, with incumbent and leader Jon Gerrard
Tyndall Park, the successor riding to Kevin Lamoureux's Inkster, where Roldan Sevillano Jr. is running
The Maples, another riding which took part of Inkster, where Pablito Sarinas is running
Fort Rouge, the least-likely of this four, where Paul Hesse is running

Here's some links to follow up on the election in Manitoba:

CBC - Manitoba Votes 2011
Winnipeg Free Press
Winnipeg Sun - Manitoba


  1. It was really funny to hear Anna Maria Tremonti neglect to say Newfoundland was having an election last evening on CBC.

  2. Heh, probably because they assume everyone knows what the outcome is.