Monday, September 12, 2011

Nanos Poll Shows More NDP Support, But Little Real Change Overall

In fact, one could argue that Nanos is just correcting from his last poll, which gave the Liberals a small edge as the second-place party.

Nevertheless, here are the topline numbers: 39.5% Con, 33.1% NDP, 20.7% Lib, 3.4% Green

No real change outside of the margin of error (+/- 3.2%), except for the Bloc, who sit at just 2.6% nationally, or 9.6% in Quebec.

Speaking of Quebec, that's were a good portion of the NDP jump comes from, from 42.9% on election day, to 48.9% in this poll. The Liberals sit with 16.1% and the Cons with 18.8%, an increase of about 2% each. The Bloc, meanwhile, is wiped out.

However, despite that six-point bump, the NDP can only manage two extra seats in the province overall, from 59 to 61. The Liberals would remain gain one to get 8, and the Conservatives gain one to get 6.

The other big jump for the NDP comes in BC, where they lead with 37.6% to the Con's 36.7%, and the Liberals far behind at 21.4% (but still up from May 2nd). However, still this is only good for only one extra seat, from 12 to 13. The Conservatives have 17, the Liberals go up from 2 to 5 seats, and the Greens have one.

With below-May 2nd results in Ontario and Atlantic Canada as well for the NDP, it means they only gain little pockets of seats in Western Canada and Quebec, while losing little seats in Ontario and the Atlantic.

In total, that's 164 Conservatives, 107 New Democrats, 33 Liberals, and Lizzy May. What a change.

Even though it looks as if the NDP have grown, they've done it in areas where they're now simply just stacking more votes in ridings they already have, like in Quebec. In fact, NDP could win all of Quebec's seats, possibly beat the Cons in the popular vote, and still not have enough to topple their majority.

The NDP's issue is still Ontario, where they're either tied or lag behind the Liberals. It makes one wonder whether or not the next leader of the NDP actually needs to be from Quebec; after all, it seems like they have most of their votes in hand. It's the rest of the country they need to work on.

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