Monday, September 19, 2011

Is the PLQ the Only Viable Opposition to Legault?

According to this Léger Marketing poll, well, yeah - they are.

The results without Francoise Legault's Mystery Party as an option has the PLQ leading the Parti Québécois, 31% to 26%, with Action Democratique at 16%, Québec Solidaire at 9%, and the Parti Vert at 5%. A further 13% chose the "other" option.

However, with FLMP (or is it PMFL?) included, Legault's "party" gets 34%, compared to 25% for the PLQ, 17% for the PQ, and so on.

Granted, it's speculation. We don't know what FLMP will actually be when it comes into force. People may not like it. It's nice to support abstract ideas, but when the party materializes, will it actually get the same support?

I'm of the idea that, yes, it's likely it'll receive a huge chunk of support. Maybe not as large as these polls claim, but enough that it'll throw a wrench into the works. There is simply too much news about it for them not to attract support. The same goes for any "new" separatist party that springs out of the PQ.

But, it seems increasingly clear that for some reason, the PLQ continues to have the most solid base of supporters, relative to the amounts that keep shifting everywhere in the province of Quebec. To only drop to 25% from 31% in the non-FLMP poll is, weirdly, indicative of continuing support in the Liberals.

That makes them the best opposition to a possible Legault swell. Weird how it works out, isn't it?



    This, before and after, PMFLMP regional poll allows me to create an "ElectoMatic" that has the party in it, despite it not existing! One will be ready shortlyish

  2. The ElectoMatic is finished, but it is highly unstable. Trying to create a new party from nothing and then using that "made up" data is not something the math-based ElectoMatic is fond of.

    I will be reinforcing it with some hard data from the difference in ADQ vote between 07 and 08, as there is some evidence that Legault's party seems to have support in the areas where the ADQ lost largest.

  3. Keep on it, Teddy. I look forward to the debut!

  4. The PLQ has many problems right now like bridges collapsing! Not to mention shale gas and the corruption, but the only reasons the Liberals in Quebec have a strong base support is mostly because they don't like supporting separatist parties and the ADQ is slightly too far to the right for them. But one more bridge collapsing and guess what some people might just vote "oui" on getting Charest out.