This Harris-Decima poll is good news for the Liberal campaign in Ontario, the first such poll to have us in the lead since February 2010, and the first one with that substantial of a lead since June 2009.
The numbers, as noted, ate 40% Liberal, 29% Progressive Conservatives, 24% NDP, and 6% Greens. That's an 11-point lead and ensures an absolute majority for the Liberals.
In terms of seats, the projection system gives the Liberals 63 seats, the Conservatives 23, and the NDP 21 seats. Regionally, the City of Toronto would elect 17 Liberals and 6 New Democrats, while the 905 area code would elect 16 Liberals, 5 PCs, and 4 New Democats.They dominate in terms of the popular vote for the GTA with about 43% of
the vote, compared to 27% for the PCs and 24% for the NDP.
That right there is a lock on the results for the Liberals. If they can reproduce that result, then it's smooth sailing.
The results have been added to my total projection system, making the race oodles more competitive than it was.
As always, of course, never take just one poll seriously. But watch for it to become a trend.