Thursday, September 8, 2011

HD Poll: OLP - 40%, PCs 29%, NDP 24%

This Harris-Decima poll is good news for the Liberal campaign in Ontario, the first such poll to have us in the lead since February 2010, and the first one with that substantial of a lead since June 2009.

The numbers, as noted, ate 40% Liberal, 29% Progressive Conservatives, 24% NDP, and 6% Greens. That's an 11-point lead and ensures an absolute majority for the Liberals.

In terms of seats, the projection system gives the Liberals 63 seats, the Conservatives 23, and the NDP 21 seats. Regionally, the City of Toronto would elect 17 Liberals and 6 New Democrats, while the 905 area code would elect 16 Liberals, 5 PCs, and 4 New Democats.They dominate in terms of the popular vote for the GTA with about 43% of the vote, compared to 27% for the PCs and 24% for the NDP.

That right there is a lock on the results for the Liberals. If they can reproduce that result, then it's smooth sailing.

The results have been added to my total projection system, making the race oodles more competitive than it was.


As always, of course, never take just one poll seriously. But watch for it to become a trend.


  1. It seems the Liberals might just win this one I hope the people of Ontario continue to see that the Liberal way is much better than the Hudack/ford way.

  2. I very much agree - but there's a way to go yet, right.

  3. I would rather see the NDP than the Liberals but I can't tell you what a relief it is that the Hudak wackos have sunk in the polls! These guys are so crazy that even the worst things that the Liberals have done are nothing compared to what PCPO would do. Pushing the Progressive Conservatives toward the US Tea-Party style of politics is, I am sure, a sickening move even for many members of that party.

  4. what i like is that the NDP have closed the gap to 2nd place to ~5% !!! I hope to see some momentum and the PCPO buried in last for the tack they have taken in this election.