Saturday, September 17, 2011

Angus Reid - PCs 36, OLP 32, NDP 26

Not really very different from their last poll, which was 38-31-24. However, even though it doesn't show a drastic change like the other three (not including Abacus), it does show a tightening of the race, in practice.

So, as noted, the topline numbers are 36-32-26, with the Greens at 6%. This would be good enough for a clear PC plurality with 46 seats. The Ontario Liberals would come in second with 37 seats, and the NDP would be very happy sitting with 24 seats.

Toronto is a near-NDP takeover, as 10 seats go to the Liberals, 8 go to the NDP, and 5 to the PCs. Though, the GTA itself is still prime PC/Lib battlegrounds.

But to prove how much faith I have in my projection, just look at the region swings. In my projection, it actually has Toronto with 35% for the Libs, 31% for the NDP, and 28% for the PCs. Angus Reid has it spread as 34% Libs, 35% NDP, and 25% Tory.

In the GTA, Angus Reid has the parties at 42% Liberal to 39% Conservative, with the NDP far behind at 12%. My projection has it as 37% Lib, 40% Con, and 17% NDP.

I personally don't find that to far off to be disconcerting, so Teddy must have done something right with the Electomatic!

So, just a simple poll. What it tells you is that the NDP are really riding high in this election, though its hard to figure out why. Is it the Jack bounce? Is the theme of "change" being captured by the NDP more than the PCs?

One thing it isn't it is Andrea Horwath, who continued to be in a solid third in terms of popularity.

Anyways, it's been added to the projection system. Not a lot of change.


  1. "One thing it isn't it is Andrea Horwath, who continued to be in a solid third in terms of popularity."

    Horwath is not far behind on the Best Premier question (Hudak 24%, McGuinty 23%, Horwath 17%) and she's way ahead ahead of the boys on the net approval score (Horwath +15%, Hudak -11%, McGuinty -21%). If she makes a good impression at the Leader's debate (a HUGE if), another Orange Wave could be in the offing. And the Leader's debate is only nine days before election day.

  2. Those are flaky "what ifs" - ground in less base than the "what if" that brought the NDP to OffOpp. I guess I'll need to actually go in-depth on that...