Thursday, August 18, 2011

Yet Another Poll Showing The Same Thing Yet Again

Abacus data is not being known for its originality, that's for sure (despite their "Not Your Average Pollster" claim).

Their current results put the Conservatives at 38%, the NDP at 32%, the Libs at 19%, and the Greens with 6%, while the Bloc sit at 26% in Quebec.

There is barely any change outside of the margin of error from May 2nd or Abacus's last poll, including among the regions. It reads more like the results of the election than an exercise in polling public opinion. I won't even bother to do a projection, because I can already guess the results.

However, there's an interesting question here: why does Abacus and Angus Reid (though AR to a lesser extent re: Quebec) show static movement from May 2nd, while Nanos shows a drop in NDP and Conservative support, and a rise for the Liberals?

I personally think it has to do with the bias that online pollsters tend to have towards the NDP; however, is it that Nanos is picking up on something others aren't, or are they just using faulty data?

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for the link to this pollster. Sure looks like Jack Layton is by far the most popular political leader. Sure hoping Jack gets back soon, and healthy to boot!