Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Wisconsin Senate Recall Live Blog

Because I have little else to do tonight (except watching Hell's Kitchen, which is awesome), I'll be doing a little live-blogging of the recall votes in Wisconsin tonight. Key thing to remember: only three of the six races need to slip, and the Democrats regain control of the state Senate. Oh, and for backgrounder, click here.

This all starts at 9:00 PM EST, 8:00 PM whatever timezone Wisconsin happens to be in.

For a quick rundown of candidates, click here. For a site that promises to show live results but possibly won't, click here.

11:20 PM: And three minutes later, D-8 is a close race with 63% of polls in, with Democrat Pasch leading 51-49. Still winning, but Democrats need to ask themselves whether or not they can really declare a "win" with such close races

11:33 PM: No change yet, so I'm giving up and sleeping. My prediction is that Pasch wins D-8 just barely and there will be a recount-worthy race in D-18.

11:17 PM: Pasch is winning handily with over 50% of the vote in in D-8 over incumbent Alberta Darling - but D-18 is looking like a recount. Of course.

11:10 PM: Jen Shilling declared winner in D-32 with 55% of the vote and 82% in, that's pretty clear, but it's only one

11:05 PM: With 83% in, Democrat King is still losing to Randy Hopper in District 18 - and with Olsen declared winner in District 14, it's officially over if they fail to regain the lead over Hopper

10:58 PM: With 82% in, D-32 is pretty safely in the hands of Democrat Jen Shilling; however, with 79% in, D-18 switches back over to incumbent Randy Hopper, 51-49

10:47 PM: D-18 with Randy Hopper and D-8 with Alberta Darling are trending Democrat - if they keep it, that means the Senate has flipped for the Democrats in Wisconsin

10:43 PM: Democrat Pasch still leading in District 8 against Alberta Darling at 29% of polls reporting - the Dems would likely consider this a good coup for them, even if they fall short of the 3 flips required

10:33 PM: District 18 is down to the wire with incumbent Hopper tied with Democrat challenger King - they need this win, the Democrats

10:25 PM: Harsdorf is the winner in District 10, but with nearly 50% in, D-32 is looking increasingly Democrat; the issue remains whether they can keep up the trend in District 8 against Darling, and whether they can win against Randy Hopper in District 18; District 14, with over 70% in, is GOP

10:22 PM: Alberta Darling in District 8 is losing badly against Democrat Pasch, though only with 18% in - oh and they declared District 2 for the GOP, and I will guarantee District 10 isn't far behind

10:15 PM: Democrat Jen Shilling winning with 53% of the vote in District 32 at about 40% of precincts in, that's good news

10:05 PM: I'm going to say that District 10 is safely Republican, as incumbent Shiela Harsdorf has 58% of the vote with 54% of polls reporting. District 2 is 62% in with GOPer Cowles at 58% as well.

10:02 PM: So far, Dems only lead in D-32, barely, while Republicans lead in the other five districts are leading fairly handily with a good amount of the polls reporting in all but two

10:00 PM: District 32 has the Democrat Shilling at 51% and GOPer Kapanke at 49% with 24% in - that's a good result there, but way too close. I'm starting to think the recall vote furor isn't as great as people have been hoping.

9:55 PM: At about 49% of the vote, District 2 with incumbent Cowles remains pretty fairly in his hands. Don't think its changing. Sorry Dems.

9:45 PM: With 27% of the vote in, District 14 narrows with Luther Olsen winning 51-49 against Dem Fred Clark; in District 32, it's 50-50 at 21% of the vote.

9:38 PM: .... and District 32 has Republican Dan Kapanke up ahead of Shilling with 12% of the vote in, though NPR claims there maybe be a city coming up will boost Shilling's numbers. Hopefully.

9:35 PM: District 18 is 54-46 in favour of incumbent Republican Randy Hopper, while Luther Olsen regains the upper hand in District 14 against the Democrats. This isn't looking good.

9:30 PM: District 32 with Dan Kapanke (the most vulnerable Republican) coming in fast with 7% counted already, with Democrat Jennifer Shilling winning 52-48

9:28 PM: District 8 shows incumbent GOPer Alberta Darling winning 62% to 38%, way early though, but its coming along

9:22 PM: District 14 coming up now, way early, but Democrat Fred Clark is leading 56-44 over incumbent GOPer Luther Olsen

9:20 PM: Very first results coming out of District Two - Republican incumbent Robert Cowles has a 88-point advantage over Democrat Nancy Nusbaum. Bit early.

9:15 PM: NPR saying that two districts normally going Republican - District 8 and District 14, represented by state Senators Alberta Darling and Luther Olsen respectively - may be in play, while two other districts (18 and 32, GOP incumbents Randy Hopper and Dan Kapanke), are thought to be total locks for the Dems. The road to three may not be too long.

9:00 PM: Here we go... six Republican senators could be facing the axe tonight, thanks to their stupid governor and very aggressive jackasses. I'm listening to NPR's Wisconsin affiliate, first time... how very left of me. My guess is that Republican Dan Kapanke in District 32 is in the most trouble - most liberal district up tonight, according to 538.

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