Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Poll shows Conservatives, NDP Tied - but Liberals make the most gains

At 33% each the Cons and Dips are tied, which makes it a misleading headline about how there is another "Orange Wave," considering that it's only a two-point bump (not the three that the site claims) from 2011. If anything, it shows that the Conservatives have simply dropped a tonne.

Not only that, 33% is actually the same number that Harris-Decima had the NDP at before. It's been the Liberals who have climbed up the ladder quite a bit, going from 15% in the last poll to 21% now. But, hey, why mention that inconvenient fact?

The topline numbers are 33% Con, 33% NDP, 21% Liberal, 7% Bloc, and 6% Green. The big news is that Ontario sees a three-way race, with the Cons at 34%, the NDP at 30%, and the Liberals at 29%. The other regions don't show a hilarious amount of change except for the Atlantic region, though the small sample size should always make one wary.

Overall, it's actually good news for the Liberals. If you put this into the projection system, you would get 133 Cons, 117 NDP, 53 Liberals, 4 Bloquistes, and a Green. Not a bad situation for either Dippers or Liberals.

2 comments:

  1. Remember the poll two and a half years before the last federal election. Did not think so. This one means even less.

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  2. Don't dismiss this poll so casually. Even that poll two and a half years ago (which I do remember, by the way) was part of and helped shaped the trend that brought us to the conclusion on May 2nd.

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