Thursday, August 25, 2011

Ontario Projections 2011

For any of those interested in the upcoming provincial election, there's now a few sites so far that provide some pretty detailed projections based on recent polling that you should take note of, plus some others.

The first, of course, is Eric Grenier and ThreeHundredEight.com, who has detailed riding-by-riding projections and is usually up-to-date with the newest poll releases. Always keep this link handy if you want to keep up to date.

Then there's Barry Kay and the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy - or, like any sane person will say, LISPOP. He just recently came out with an Ontario projection, and based on LISPOP's previous track record, they should be in a good place. Keep an eye on it - I just don't know how up-to-date he is.

Then, as usual, there is Election Prediction Project. Though the May 2nd projections were a disaster, you can't really blame EPP for it, given the unknown territory we entered. However, they're back for October 6 and there's a good amount of activity on the site so far. It's sort of just a sidebar for me, but hey, it's still a prediction.

Then, there's this guy. Totally new, near as I can tell. The Canadian Election Atlas has projections but hell if I know how he does them. Nevertheless, he seems to know what he's doing, even if that projection seems more than a little off to me. But, better yet, he offers full provincial coverage for the fall election season, so, useful.


I'm hoping to put up my own, sort of half-assed projections soon, but there's no rush given the lack of intense polling. In the meantime, I'll settle with the three above; and if anyone knows more, link 'em.

3 comments:

  1. Earl, the atlas dude, is someone who I know. He's getting better the more I scream at him.

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  2. Keep screamin', it could be interesting to see how he fares come October.

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  3. Hey, what issues do you have with my projections? I'd like to know.

    Thanks for the plug! :)

    I explained my methodology in past projections, perhaps I should put a link to it somewhere.

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