Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Angus Reid Poll is Good News for NDP.... Or Is It?

Regular readers here know of my criticisms of Angus Reid which, from time to time, are proven exceptionally right. Their most recent poll, however, is kind of a mixed bag - especially for the New Democrats.

But first, the topline numbers:

CON: 39%
NDP: 31%
LIB: 19%
BLOC: 6%
GRN: 4%


So, erm, exactly what everyone received on May 2nd. How refreshing, and unsurprising, and nothing at all like that recent Nanos poll which put the Liberals and NDP tied.... until you look at the regional results.

The biggest, most specific blip is Quebec: instead of the 43% they got on May 2nd, the NDP have dropped down to 35% in the province, while both Liberals and Conservatives are up five points respectively (17% and 22%), and the Bloc drops one to 22%. That's dangerous for the NDP, outside of the margin of error, and confirming the results we saw in Nanos.

However, it's apparently made up for in BC, where the NDP lead with 38% (Cons at 37%, Libs up at 17%) and Saskitoba (44% compared to Con's 40% and Lib's 15%), and Atlantic Canada (35% for the Dippers, 34% for Cons, 24% for Libs), making this an odd exercise in winning many regions without winning many more votes.

Why do the Cons still have that large lead? The culprit is Ontario, as always, where the Conservatives lead with 44%, and the NDP and Liberals are tied at 26%. I will continue to say it - the New Democrats have an Ontario problem, and it's not going away anytime soon.

Angus also asked people's opinions about the Turmel affair - as a general result, 51% said they didn't care, and 41% said they did. But again, the book cover doesn't tell the whole story. Here's the regional breakdown:

You need to click on it to see it properly, but combined, just under 50% of Ontarians are concerned about Turmel's affiliations, while 44% aren't. Again - the Ontario problem.

Then we get down to the question about whether or not Nycole Turmel should resign - and 45% said yes, compared to 35% who said no. That's... disjointed. Then again, it's because Liberals and Conservatives kept pressing "yes," with 61% of Cons saying she should, and 48% of Liberals saying the same thing.

Curiously, though, a sizeable enough chunk - 29% - of Dippers said she should resign, and just 55% said she shouldn't. That's not a huge vote of confidence. To point out, it's the Bloc at 60% that give Turmel the biggest support.

Oh, and in case anyone was wondering, you'd get the Conservatives down to just 153 seats, the NDP with 108, and the Libs with 39, and the Bloc with 4; not a lot of change, really, though its a minority really. Just a very workable one. In Quebec, you'd have 48 Dippers, 12 Conservatives, 11 Liberals, and 4 Bloc members.

3 comments:

  1. You might want to correct a typo in this paragraph:

    " Why do the Cons still have that large lead? The culprit is Ontario, as always, where the Conservatives lead with 44%, and the NDP and Liberals are tied at 26%. I will continue to say it - the New Democrats have an Ontario problem, and it's not going away anytime soon."

    'the New Democrats' should be 'the Liberals'

    Always ready to lend a helping hand.

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  2. Erm... yeah, forgive me if I don't want to take it, given how incorrect it seems.

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  3. An interesting note from that polling file is that the two permanent leaders (Harper and May) are the only two with approval and disapproval ratings that are anywhere near matched; the two interims with seats in the commons (Rae and Turmel) have a net negative of between 6 and 10 points, while whoever it is that's leading the Bloc has a net negative of 40!

    As for the Turmel polls, I note that NDPers do not seem all that concerned, and those that do, seem to be from the English parts of Canada. Ontario and BC are the only places with significant NDP numbers where this might be a problem and even then it only really threatens a quarter of their vote. Using the UBC ESM Forecaster, and setting the NDP at .75 in these two provinces, we get a net loss of 11 seats. Quebec would more than double this. Despite that, the NDP would still be sitting on 80 seats.

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