Thursday, July 14, 2011

Why Polling Matters This Fall

Over at, Eric Grenier has stumbled upon a nasty habit of Ontario pollsters:
There is a lot less reason to worry in Ontario. The average of the six polls conducted in the final week of the campaign were remarkably close to the election's results. Being within 0.4 points for the Liberals and 0.6 points for the Progressive Conservatives is excellent. Over-estimating NDP support could be an issue, however, if the Liberals and NDP start to run neck-and-neck for second in the polls. But with a good performance from the pollsters in 2007, we can hope for another good performance in Ontario this fall.
That's right - in Ontario, pollsters know what they're doing. Which means for the governing McGuinty Liberals, by only averaging 33.2% in the last six polls of this year, compared to 41.8% for the Progressive Conservatives and 18.7% for the NDP, they're not in a very good place right now.

Which is why I'm very glad to see this coming out right now, when it really matters:

But even with hard-hitting ads like this, we need to keep a close eye on the polls. They're going to matter more than ever to McGuinty's survival and the continuance of good Liberal governance in Ontario.

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