Friday, June 3, 2011

Fordmania/Slight-Dipper-Mania in Toronto

As noted by BigCityLib, a Forum research poll for the City of Toronto shows some relatively interesting numbers today, both on the municipal and provincial scene.

Let's start with Rob Ford's approval ratings:

As you can see, there isn't a huge dip in support - a drop of 3-points and a rise of 3-points. That's easy enough, and a good indication that Ford can rest easy about Torontonian's support tonight.

What's more interesting is the breakdown of that support across the regions, which I showed above, as well as gender, and even which provincial party you support. As the regions show, Ford is still struggling in the old City of Toronto, but mopping up easily in the outer cities. That being said, he is oddly down in Etobicoke, his home baase, but killing in North York. That's a tad different from the results in 2010. One wonders whether its a sign of dropping support, or if its simply an odd sample base.

The breakdown among the vote intention for provincial parties is slightly interesting as well. Among Progressive Conservatives, 89% support Ford while 11% oppose him, not a huge surprise. Among Dippers, 62% oppose Ford, and 38% support him. For the Liberals, the split is 58% oppose, 42% support. The Greens are split 54% oppose, and 46% support.

Isn't that odd? The PCs are entirely supportive of Ford, while the Liberals and Dippers (and Greens), who are still mostly opposed, seemed to be more split amongst themselves regardless. Ford appeals to enough Liberals and NDPers to keep himself alfoat; if the Liberals, NDP, and Greens opposed Ford by that 89-11 the PCs support him on, you'd see 38% supporting Ford, and 62% opposing him. There's some food for thought if there ever was some.

Speaking of provincial voting intentions, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied with 34% each, while the NDP are coming up with 26%, and the Greens have 7%. This represents margin-of-error losses and gains for the Liberals and Conservatives, but a good gain for the NDP. Forum also broke this down among the regions, as shown below:

Compare this to the 2011 federal election results:

It's interesting to note that the NDP are within the margin of error in all areas except Toronto/East York, where they're running 10-points behind themselves. Overall, most parties are where they should be, except for the huge gains for the Cons in Scarborough. Translates nicely over, I think.

The provincial NDP, overall, are up, but they're not exactly romping around yet. They could probably knock down many of the ridings they did federally, but the stronger PC result may just hamper some of their gains, especially in Scarborough, and the stronger Liberal results in Toronto-proper also presents an issue. The Ontario Liberals, meanwhile, are more than just a little nervous. They'll need to work on Toronto if they want to keep their majority.

No comments:

Post a Comment