Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Urban Results Canada 2011

I tallied up the results as I saw them so far in the cities of Ottawa, Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver, and here's what I got:

Toronto (City proper) - 23 ridings

Liberal - 384,345 - 36.1% - 6 seats
Conservative - 329,386 - 30.9% - 9 seats
New Democrat - 312,164 - 29.3% - 8 seats
Green - 34,198 - 3.2%
Other - 5,305 - 0.5%

Greater Toronto Area - 44 ridings

Conservative - 939,179 - 40.6% - 29 seats
Liberal - 740,986 - 32.0% - 7 seats
New Democrat - 549,921 - 23.7% - 8 seats
Green - 74,705 - 3.2%
Other - 11,336 - 0.5%

Montreal/Laval - 22 ridings

New Democrat - 410,522 - 39.9% - 14 seats
Liberal - 261,332 - 25.4% - 7 seats
Bloc Quebecois - 193,155 - 18.8% - 1 seat
Conservative - 134,514 - 13.1%
Green - 23,933 - 2.3%
Other - 6,345 - 0.6%

Vancouver (City proper) - 5 seats

New Democrat - 82,626 - 33.2% - 2 seats
Conservative - 77,098 - 31.0% - 1 seat
Liberal - 68,862 - 27.7% - 2 seats
Green - 18,377 - 7.4%
Other - 1,963 - 0.8%

Lower Mainland (excluding Langley, Abbotsford) - 14 seats

Conservative - 268,431 - 39.8% - 5 seats
New Democrat - 226,377 - 33.5% - 7 seats
Liberal - 136,889 - 20.3% - 2 seats
Green - 36,039 - 5.3%
Other - 6,945 - 1.0%

Ottawa, Hull-Gatineau - 9 ridings

Conservative - 199,986 - 35.0% (41.7% in Ott, 9.1% in H-G) - 4 seats
New Democrat - 174,802 - 30.6% (23.0% in Ott, 60.5% in H-G) - 3 seats
Liberal - 160,217 - 28.1% (30.1% in Ott, 17.2% in H-G) - 2 seats
Green - 20,469 - 3.6% (4.1% in Ott, 1.5% in H-G)
Bloc - 13,602 - 2.4% (11.7% in H-G)
Other - 1,727 - 0.3%


So, at least in our core urban areas outside of Montreal/Laval, we did relatively well in the popular vote, and considering how bad the wave in Quebec was, it's amazing that we held on to the quarter of voters in Montreal/Laval that we did.

However, Toronto's results, both in the city proper and in the GTA, are the most serious and damning clue as to why we've fallen as far as we have, and many predicted it: vote splitting. Despite winning the popular vote by 6% in the city itself, the Liberals won only 6 seats, while the second place Conservatives won 9, and the third place NDP won 8. This vote splitting killed us in the city, where we should have been able to hang on to quite a few seats had the vote split not occurred.

The same goes for the rest of the GTA. By a wide margin in the entire GTA, it was a Liberal and Conservative fight, this especially true in all but one Mississauga and Brampton riding. Had the vote splitting not occurred, we could have denied the Conservatives could have lost up to 15 seats in the GTA - 15! Dropping them right back into near-majority-but-not-quite territory.

Let this be a lesson for next time for the voters of the GTA - you vote NDP in most ridings, you get a Conservative. Sorry, but it's true. And we gave Harper a majority because of it.

2 comments:

  1. Also on the bright side we won at least 1 seat in every province except Alberta.

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  2. Yeah, that's always good. Though we also failed to win a seat in the North.

    Which is why it confused me when some idiot last night kept saying the Liberals are less of a national party than the NDP - well, to be honest, we actually have seats in 9 provinces, they have them in 8.

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