Saturday, May 21, 2011

Lest BC attempted to be outshined....

.... both Ipsos Reid and Mustel have released polling that, while giving a somewhat different race, is very much the same thing, only a few weeks after that groundbreaking federal election. And guess who isn't getting the benefit of the doubt.

First off, Ipsos gives the numbers of 41% for the BC Liberals, 39% BC NDP, 10% BC Conservatives (lead by erstwhile idiot John Cummins) and 8% Greens, with the two smaller parties at their highest and lowest levels respectively, so far this year anyways.

While it's a close race on the surface, as 308.com's Eric Grenier pointed out, the advantage is to Liberal Leader Christy Clark. 47% of respondents saw Clark as the person who would make the Best Premier, while new NDP leader Adrian Dix gets a solid 25% of respondents.

The regionals also give advantage-Clark, with the Lower Mainland going to Clark 43-40, Southern Interior 41-25, and Northern BC 47-30 (where the Conservatives manage a fun 19%). On Victoria Island, also known as NDP Island, the race is 51-32 in favour of the Dippers.

At 308.com, this gives us 47 BC Lib seats to 37 NDPers, and one Independent. The current legislature is 49-34-2.

I don't knew the details of the Mustel poll, however, we can summarize from this lovely chart that the situation is as different as it is the same.

The numbers from Mustel give us 37% BC Libs, 35% NDP, 18% Cons, and 9% Greens. It's obvious where the numbers have been gobbled up to. The BC Conservatives hit their highest note ever with 18% of the vote, though that doesn't seem to have put a damper on the Liberals too much, giving them a lead while the BC Cons keep far enough back to not make too many waves.

The question is where this would end up allowing vote-splitting, however. Could the NDP sneak through on the back of the BC Conservatives? We'll have to wait and see.

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