Thursday, May 26, 2011

First Post-Rapture Poll

And it's essentially static - as you'd expect to be when Parliament isn't even sitting.

Abacus Data, an online pollster, gives us the numbers 40% Con, 33% NDP, 16% Lib, 6% Bloc, 5% Green, with a margin of error of 2.5%, though because they round the numbers, it's actually higher than that.

Anyways, that's essentially what you got in the May 2nd election, including provincially, though the Libs are lower in Ontario and NDP higher there, but not hilariously so.

Running this through a basic swing thingy you get 163 Cons, 101 Dips, 36 Libs, 7 Blocs, and a Green. Change is awesome!

2 comments:

  1. Explain to me the methodology you used which equates less support than we had on election day with picking up two more seats? As is we only held onto a few by the skin of our teeth.

    This isn't a personal shot, but a lot of bloggers like to swing numbers any variety of ways to show results they can't back up. I'd like to see all Libloggers sipping less of the poll soup, and focusing on rebuilding.

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  2. I'll save myself the trouble: http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/make-your-own-projections.html

    2Close2Call's methodology is relatively sound, but its mostly used because he has the most accessible projection where you can just pop in some numbers and see a possible outcome. So, I wasn't just pulling the numbers out of a hat (minus the Green one, because his system didn't account for that, no one's really did without a HUGE Green number in BC).

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