Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Updated Update on that COMPAS poll

Courtesy of Canadian Election Watcher, we have the regional breakdowns of the COMPAS poll that showed a crazy 21-point lead:

  
It appears that the Conservatives are now leading 49-32 in Ontario, though I have no clue what the national numbers actually are, as this is simply regional breakdowns. But, we can assume the Conservatives are sitting somewhere around 45-50% in this poll, the Liberals 25-30%, and the NDP about 20%.

Take these results as you will. They claim to have a huge field to have gleaned these results of off, but I don't know where we'd find that. This also ends up being the biggest poll to veer off course so far in this campaign, which isn't unusual - someone had to - but still makes one wonder whether COMPAS is picking up on something we don't know, or whether they're just playing games with the Sun (wait for the "psyche!" to come).

I know for a fact that Nanos, Ekos, Innovative Res., Harris-Decima, and probably Leger, don't show this kind of movement. COMPAS is the odd man out. Who's right? Is it a voodoo poll or correct?

***UPDATE***

Looky, I found the full report. Full topline results are 45% Con, 24% Lib, 16% NDP(?), 8% Bloc, and 7% Greenies.

Some interesting notes on this poll including COMPAS's insistence on the regional variations in Ontario, without actually providing those numbers. Hm. Useful.

Also, this is not the largest poll conducted in this campaign, by phone or online - they surveyed 2,151 voters, while Ekos on April 1st did 2,929. Nice try, QMI. You can't fool me, just the Sun.

5 comments:

  1. Its not even a poll. I think that when the numbers are analyzed they will be revealed to be as fake as that bogus pollster called out by Nate Silver a while back.

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  2. Ah right, I remember that one - maybe Eric Grenier can do the same over at 308.com!

    That being said, COMPAS isn't some randomly appearing polling company, they do have something of a history.

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  3. When you're running 60-70% on the Prairies, that is going to HEAVILY skew your national numbers - no matter what the other regionals say. The thing is, I'm happy with the Cons running so high in their "base" region. How much more of almost 100% of the seats can they get? No growth there. I'd be worried if they had a huge lead in the Atlantic, or looked respectable in Quebec. Ontario, I would say, is also an aberration reflecting the VERY volatile situation there. I would say Ontario is the true battle ground. Don't forget, voters in Ontario tend to watch Quebec a lot, and see what Quebec is doing. If the Liberals look strong in Quebec, it bodes well for us in Ontario.

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  4. True, Grit - someone told me that when Quebec goes, Ontario goes a week later. Remains to be seen how much we can keep our support up in QC, however, and it's certainly not helping the NDP.

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  5. Compas has links to a right wing think tank - the Frontier institute... hmmm and their poll predicts a right wing win in the election. Funny that.

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