That reality: incumbents invariably have an advantage.
The two polls, of course, are ones done by CROP (totally my favourite pollster) on the Montreal ridings of Outremont, held by the NDP's Tom Mulcair, and Lac-Saint-Louis, held by the Liberal's Francis Scarpaleggia.
As you can see, both Mulcair and Scarpaleggia are safely ensconced in their ridings, despite hype from the Liberals in Outremont, and Conservatives in L-S-L, over their candidates, Martin Cauchon and Larry Smith, respectively.
What does this tell us? Well, I don't agree with this assessment, though it may have some elements to tell us what's going. However, I think the fact is that once you have an incumbent that does a relatively good job, well, you usually kind of end up sticking with him or her. Despite two heavyweight candidates, the challenging parties aren't catching a break. Neither of these were hyper-marginal, like Gatineau, though Outremont was close; but they could tell us a story we might have to accept. No one has done anything to totally piss off Canadians and their electorate yet, or at least, there's no other options that give us the opportunity to get something better. This election is kind of a dud, for all parties. Yay.
Overall, however, remember that these riding polls aren't the most accurate things ever. There's time for everything to turn around.