Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Today may be very interesting...

For several reasons:

1. Ekos is doing daily polling, and with Nanos away because of Easter, people need to fulfill their addiction

2. Polling companies like Innovative Research release provincially-based polls (well, Manitoba and Ontario) which are well regarded and should give us an interesting picture of how the regions are breaking down, especially Ontario (Environics may be doing the same thing)

3. Liberals are reorganizing themselves to attack the New Democrats in a heavy way, also the issues the NDP have faced since Easter weekend - the Bloc's new attacks, their missing $3 billion, Iggy on TLMEP - should, I think, start to show up in fieldwork for pollsters, and we'll see if it does anything against the Orange Wave


  1. I really wonder if attacking the NDP is not actually going to make things worse for the Liberals. Some people just like an underdog that is on the rise and attacking them often makes people more sympathetic to them. Furthermore, for many people, attacks, particularly on the issue of "costing," seem hollow because every party can be subject to such attacks because all costings are based on projections and these are notoriously unreliable anyway. In my reading of, and experience of elections in quite a number of countries, it is often the attacks on rising parties that vault them into power.

    However, I don't know that the Liberals have much choice at this point. For a myriad of reasons they have simply faltered and it seems pretty clear that they are headed for a significant loss. Perhaps their worst loss ever. The Liberals failed from the beginning to counter Conservative attacks on him, just like they did with Dion who I think was a much better prospect than Ignatieff. Ignatieff succumbed to the imaged that the Cons created of him. And unlike Harper's handlers, no one ever tried to give Ignatieff a softer, more appealing public image. I also think they moved to far right on many issues for lots of voters and people therefore didn't see them as a meaningful alternative. I actually think that if the Liberals had softened Ignatieff's image and also presented this election as a kind of "national crisis" which demanded, like WWII, an unusual degree of cooperation between the opposition parties to save the 'democratic system,' then they might have stood a chance.

  2. With the Liberals focusing on the NDP and its reckless economics, Harper will finish strong.

  3. I don't know, kirby. You're not entirely wrong to be honest - we could face a big loss come May 2nd. But what's surprising is that Ignatieff has more or less held the base vote even in the face of the NDP surge. If he can do that, all we need to do is bat back the NDP, hope Gilles has some luck (though really, either option in QC is disheartening), and we can rest comfortably for awhile.

    I think going after the NDP is the right strategy for the moment. Harper is not going to be defeated in an out-and-out slugging match, and it isn't likely any of us will get more seats, both majority-wise and especially so plurality-wise. The Liberals have to be concerned of where we end up on May 2nd, and its better to attack the NDP and secure second place, than it is to fight a losing battle and end up third. But, this is just my opinion.

  4. Rotterdam,

    Harper was likely going to finish strong anyways.

  5. And hope Gilles has some luck.

    Wow. AmAZING. Let's all cross our fingers the Bloc wins strong, guys!

    Is this actually some loser NDP or Conservative doing a satire of a desperate Liberal who'd actually rather the separatists won than hand over the wheel to another party? It's genius parody, it's so real it fools me.

  6. Jacques,

    Before you get all uppity again, try reading the entire quote in context. I don't find either option exactly what I'd like to see in Quebec. What I'd like to see is a strong Liberal presence. However, if it's either Bloc or NDP, fact is, either or, same shit, different colour.