Thursday, April 21, 2011

Not all Quebec news is good for the NDP....

While the NDP are powering ahead in one unreliable poll and one reliable, a new riding poll out questions how much of a reality we are exactly facing.

A poll done by Segma Marketing for Le Droit and 104.7 CKOI shows a much tighter race than expected in Gatineau, one that the NDP should slightly be worried about, even though it gives them a lead.

Francoise Boivin sits with 33% of the vote, up from 26% in 2008, and and definitely up from Segma's last poll, which gave them 15.5% of the vote.

I don't have the exact link to this poll yet, just the numbers which came from Alice, who runs Pundit's Guide, on Twitter, but who I trust to not be taking things out of the air. It also confirms something, which makes me think its credible.

What it confirms is that on the ground, at least in these riding polls, the NDP aren't doing hilariously well. This was also confirmed by CROP, though to a lesser extent by Leger, the former who did some polling on Quebec City ridings, the latter in Abitibi ridings.

Because while these numbers are good for the New Democrats, they highlight that even if they can get amazing numbers in Quebec, riding-by-riding they may be a tad weak. Given that both the Bloc and the Liberal candidates are only 4% behind Boivin in Gatineau, it may be a sign that the NDP should expect some positives out of Quebec come May 2nd, but not a lot of surprises.

1 comment:

  1. The thing was, according to the reporting out I got of that poll, the NDP rose 6 points on the final day of the 5-day period in the field. So, the results would not necessarily be inconsistent with an explanation that said the province-wide rise was coming in the last few days.

    On the other hand, that 6 point rise if true would also coincide with the attack made on Ms. Boivin. In which case it could either be explained as a sympathy move, a recognition that she wouldn't be being attacked unless she were a real contender, or simply following the province-wide trend.

    Remember that in the last election, there was a riding specific poll in Gatineau that showed her in 3rd place a few weeks out, and on E-Day she nearly tied the Bloc incumbent.

    So, more fuel for the fire, but all very interesting, nonetheless.