Saturday, April 9, 2011

NDP travels back in time to 2000

Blaikie, Judy W-L, McDonough, and Layton - sensing a pattern here?
At least according to Nanos, who now have the New Democrats at essentially the same support they garnered during the 2000 federal election, minus their surge in Quebec and ground-holding results in BC.

In that election, the New Democrats only held on to 13 seats with 8.5% support nationally. With the Nanos poll, the New Democrats hold on to 13.2% support. However, this is mostly because in Quebec, they sit at 16.1% support, while in 2000 they only had 1.8%. In Ontario, they sit at 8.4% (8.3% in 2000), in Atlantic Canada with only 11.4% (16.8% in 2000), underperforming in the Prairies, which thanks to a poll breaker, equals out to roughly 7.8% in Alberta (5.4% in 2000), but only 14.4% in Saskitoba (23.3% in 2000). As noted, they hold well in BC with 22.6%, exactly twice their totals in the 2000 election (11.3%).

What does this mean for the New Democrats? Well, they won't have a disastrous result like 2000, I guess, but they could lose roughly 15-20 seats easily. Only Quebec gives them solace, but not much, as the two traditional parties hold their own water at 20% for the Cons and 25% for the Libs. At those numbers, anything the NDP gains will be purely statistical noise - votes piling up in ridings across the province of Quebec which will save them from total humiliation, but will give them nothing to cheer about on election day.

Suddenly Jack don't look like much of an option, does he? Cue Mulcair....


  1. One weakness I see with the NDP is that it is running a single issue campaign: seniors. If one is not a senior, what does the NDP offer me? Years ago, the NDP under leader Alexa McDonough ran a campaign under health care. While health care is in important issue, the NDP made health care its only issue. I still remember the joke about Alexa McDonough solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict--better health care.

    While the Liberals have made this election about democracy and Harper's lack of democratic credentials, the NDP is limited to seeking the seniors' votes just like the Green Party seeks votes from environmentalists. The NDP needs to change the channel very quickly, or else the party will lose seats to the Liberals and a few to the Conservatives.

  2. I agree Skinny Dipper, very much. Very good assessment - and I suppose my 2000 reference was better than I thought!