Sunday, April 17, 2011

NDP Tide Sweeps Liberals Away

.... or not. Despite the hulabaloo over the increased NDP numbers recently, including from the increasingly excitable Chantal Herbert and Andrew Coyne, salivating at the prospect of the Liberals being destroyed, today's Nanos, and the most recent Ekos have shown that, while they are up, the NDP are sitting at, or even lower, than their 2008 levels in most provinces, outside of Quebec, where they currently are enjoying a boost - though it's best demonstrated by Too Close To Call author Bryan Breguet's post on the "possible" seats the NDP could grab, and how few of them there really seem to be.

The NDP are doing well and keeping their support levels, don't get me wrong - but they aren't in any position to surpass the Liberals as a main party of government, or even an-outside-chance-of-forming-government party. Minus one blip with Forum Research, which has arguably showed a bias towards the NDP since they started running polls this campaign (for example, showing the NDP at 20% and on an uptrend when other parties were showing at least a downward trend during the second week), no poll has put the NDP higher than 20-21% as this campaign has progressed.

Another fun fact is that in pretty much every single poll, the NDP are down from strong support levels they once received in Ontario, easily seen in this graphic from 308.com. They may be up in Quebec, but they're facing some big loss of support in the province where they can actually win lots of seats if they tried.

So while it may be a problem for the Liberals, who are trying to siphon off key votes in areas to stop voting splitting in certain ridings, the NDP aren't going to surpass us any time soon, not with their current levels of support. Calm your nerves, everyone.

I plan on doing something a little more in-depth in the coming week, along with another couple of riding profiles that the NDP are going to want to keep an eye on. And I apologize for the inactivity - work plus canvassing for Alyssa Brierley's campaign here in Burlington is a bit of a job! Here's some pictures of the campaign offices in Burlington, it was empty at nearly 7PM but it gets very busy during the day. Always looking for volunteers, however!


6 comments:

  1. I used to consider Hebert one of the best reads around. I haven't read one word of her dribble this election, not one. Seriously.

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  2. I've felt the same way about Hebert for a long while now, since she threw in her support for a Liberal/NDP merger last year. Her and Coyne really seem to have it in for us.

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  3. I agree with my fellow commentators. What's happened to Chantal? She's gone from someone I had deep respect for and 'enjoyed' reading to someone now who gives every sign of 'sleeping with the enemy'. :-(

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  4. Hebert is, and always will be, a left-leaning reporter. We dashed her hopes of a Liberal NDP merger, and now she's pissed. She also has some personal dislike - it appears - for Liberals rooted in her views on Quebec. Coyne is always Coyne. He's a fiscal Con who did give us some good grades early on (probably because he was surprised by Iggy's great performance). He is however, a FISCAL Conservative, and I don't think he's particularly happy with Harper either.

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  5. According to the Ekos poll, the big difference in voter preference exists among people who are 65+, and are likely to vote. Young Canadians who are 18-24 do have preferences similar to other Canadians under 65. That does not mean that young Canadians should not vote--quite the opposite. It means that if more young people vote, they will change the results of the election young Canadians have different general preferences from Canadians 65+.

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  6. The NDP has had one good week out of three, not surprisingly the week where Jack Layton receives the most national exposure he is going to receive during the election.

    For the remaining two weeks the media is going to focus on the two men who have the best shot of forming a government so the NDP will fade.

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