Thursday, April 21, 2011

NDP officially becomes the new Bloc Quebecois

With the release of this CROP poll and this Ekos poll, the NDP have pulled ahead of the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec, finally gaining traction in a province that has so far alluded their grasp for their entire history.

Where Ekos and CROP differ is on where the Liberals and Bloc sit; CROP has never been very favourable to the Liberals, often penalizing them compared to other parties. Thus I'm more inclined to believe Ekos, which has a good track record of following trends. This is definitely a trend to follow.

No one is quite sure what this may even mean. Too Close to Call gives the NDP 31 seats in Quebec based on the CROP poll, 28 to the Bloc, 9 Lib, and 7 Cons. Putting through the Ekos numbers on his projection system, you get 31 NDP, 17 Bloc, 16 Liberal, and 11 Conservative. TCTC put out numbers on Ekos, giving 32 to the NDP, 22 Bloc, 12 Liberal, and 9 Conservatives. But, these are rough estimates, and no one really knows how it would go over.

Prognosis? Quebeckers may have chosen a new bandwagon to ride on. No one really expected the Liberals to perform well in this election in the province, but with these kinds of numbers, the NDP are starting to look like serious contenders for power. Will other polls confirm it all? We'll have to wait and see. Either way, it's going to be a very interesting couple of weeks.

6 comments:

  1. Please tell me I'm just having a nightmare and I'll wake up soon...

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  2. I think Layton has the power to go the distance...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_kH6jS6zeA

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  3. Oh great, just what we need. Another hypocritical opportunist. He's an improvement over Harper, but not by much.

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  4. Hishighness,

    Sorry, this ain't the Twilight Zone...

    Vive la Federation,

    We say this about Layton all the time. He never does. Could be different this time, but I doubt it.

    Alison,

    Ha!

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  6. Wow that's an unbelievable turn of events. And I thought this election would be insignificant. I think it is really healthy to have a change. And we are blessed with the ability for free and fair elections. Something much if the world is still fighting for. Seems Quebec really is a socially minded place and we make a good contribution to Canada in this respect. Never an NDP supporter in the past, I can't help but save Vive le NDP!

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