Apparently, Fair Vote Canada, which brought you this doozy of a PR projection whereby you can give the Bloc Quebecois, which only runs a maximum of 75 candidates, a 100-seat majority, has apparently come out a projection on that latest Ipsos Reid poll which gives the Conservatives 201 seats (!!!), the Liberals 53, the NDP 48, and the Bloc 4 seats.
Hmm. According to Canada.com, which Fair Vote gave/made these projections for, FV uses a "... a matrix that predicts how a party's supporters in a previous election will vote in the next election."
The "method," apparently ".... assumes a party polling above its previous popular vote will, on balance, keep all of its voters and capture some from other parties. Conversely, a party polling below last election's popular vote will be losing some of its voters to other parties."
Erm, in other words, they used a basic swing projection. Except I have no idea how they got to 201 for the Conservatives... or do I?
I call such bullshit on Fair Vote Canada, with their crappy calculator and silly notions of what constitutes accuracy and a proper projection matrix.
Using Too Close to Call's well-thought-out projection system, we get the following:
177 Conservatives, 49 New Democrats, 48 Liberals, 34 Bloc Quebecois
That's horrible but still a hell of a lot more infinitely plausible.