Thursday, April 28, 2011

Expected Make-up of the 41st Parliament

Or, at least, what I expect it to look like.

Over to your right, I replaced my projections with another projection, except this is simply what I think Parliament will look like, riding-by-riding, based on what I think. It's not entirely gut-feeling, but it is most of it; its not a lot different from Election Prediction Project, except this is all me.

My total? 148 Con, 75 NDP (with 33 Quebec seats), 65 Liberals, and 20 Bloc members. A minority Conservative government whereby together the NDP and the Liberals make up 140 seats - meaning they'd need the Bloc to govern.

I'm not married to the projection, however, I have made some judgment calls some will probably question. One is calling Laurier-Sainte-Marie for Duceppe, because I think he has enough gravitas to keep it light blue; another is Brant, where the local conditions I know of speak to a groundswell of NDP support; and another is Eglinton-Lawrence, which everyone calls for the Conservatives, but I think will stay with Volpe because he has enough organization to buck the trend. Instead, I think Don Valley West is more likely to fall, given the riding's demographics and relative low-keyness of the Liberal MP, Rob Oliphant.

I also call for 13 seats in Quebec, with the Liberals keeping all Montreal seats minus LaSalle-Emard and Westmount-Ville Marie. Others are saying Lac-Saint-Louis and Notre-Dame-de-Grace and so on are going NDP because of "the math" - I don't think so. It's not what I've heard and I see the NDP taking a heck of a lot more from the Bloc than the Liberals in Quebec. I also think the Liberals will eek out split-vote wins in Brome-Mississquoi and Haute-Gaspesie, simply because the original Bloc numbers in those ridings, in addition to the original NDP numbers, aren't enough to overcome the Liberal MPs running there.

Anyways, enjoy, tell me what you think, etc.

3 comments:

  1. As good a guess as any i guess. One day I think vote splitting will result in a Tory majority, another day I think the Liberals will suddenly bounce back, and still another day I see a hundred seats for the NDP. I think in this case the best way to be right about the seat projection is the same way economists create a good financial forecast - make a lot of predictions and one of them is bound to be correct.

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  2. Haha, good point kirby,good point.

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  3. You're not married to the projection? Ha ha ha ha that's because there's lots of time for things to change ha ha ha ha.

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