Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Ekos of the Week - That's a tight race?

Not really what I expected when I heard that Ekos had "big changes" to come, lots of narrowing to be had, and whatnot - only to find out that it's because the Cons dropped and the NDP rose. Jeesh.

Topline numbers as follows: 33.8% Con (-2.4), 28.8% Lib (+1.1), 19.1% NDP (+2.5), 7.8% Bloc (-0.5), and 9% Green (+0.5).

Don't get me wrong, a 5.5% Con lead is better than an 8.5% Con lead, but this really isn't "significant narrowing.." It's just outside of the margin of error.

Anyways, some notables include a still saggy Bloc result in Quebec with 31.1%, though the NDP now sit with 21.0%, compared to 19.7% Lib and 18.2% Con, nothing tremendously different from what we've seen out of some other polls.

However, for all their second-placing in Quebec, the NDP are performing badly in Ontario with 13.6% of the vote, while the Cons barely lead with 38% compared to 37.8% for the Liberals.

Not all bad for the Dippers however, as they come in first in BC with 36.8%, with Cons at a low 26.4% and the Libs at an OK 22.9% - but understand that the margin of error is 9.1%. Small sample sizes strike again.

Overall, this poll isn't as surprising as expected. It follows the other polling trends recently minus the few blips due to small samples. Way to disappoint, Ekos.

2 comments:

  1. Quite frankly, all the press that this poll has been getting is the best news Liberals could ask for. It gives energy to Ignatieff and Layton ahead of the French debate where all eyes will be on Duceppe to see if he can maintain position as Quebec's voice against Harper.

    I am sure that post-debates, we'll see a CPC rise and a LPC fall. Undecideds will start to choose between the two camps and right now, from the door knocking I've done, the advantage goes to Harper. But, with press like this, the narrative is set that it is a horse race; meaning, Ignatieff is just as qualified to be PM as Harper is.

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  2. Call me old-fashioned, or even fiscally conservative, but where I come from, 33.8% minus 28.8% is just a 5.0 gap. (I guess that extra .6 that Graves credits them with is the proverbial "Egg management fee")

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