Sunday, April 3, 2011

Countdown to Platform 2011... and a Nanos poll

Sunday promises to be a fun day, unlike Saturday, the highlight of which was Jack Layton's sad turnout in Halifax - only too amusing to someone who hears too often how Layton is the most charismatic and popular politician in Canada.

Because today, the Liberal Party launches its 2011 election platform. We've already seen some of the spending promises, totalling several billion already, and now we'll see the entire new "Red Book" out in its glory, costed and beautiful, showing the way forward to a fantastic new Canadian paradise. And it was written by an American to boot!

Since I'm stuck inside with a blasted cold, I'm equally glad to hear about how the platform will be launched in an online town hall session, based in Ottawa, but taking questions from all corners. I look forward to seeing what's not only in the book, but the balls thrown at it at the outset. If you want to watch online, just follow this link - otherwise it'll be carried on CBC. That's at 11 am Eastern time folks - don't be late!

Meanwhile, Nanos comes out with its newest 3-day polling average, with barely any change, minus a huge momentum shift in Ontario!!

While the topline numbers show we've dropped, the fact is that in Ontario, we've gained a huge amount. In the last Nanos poll, we sat at only 34.5% to the Conservative's 45% - now it's a tight race, with us at 37.6% and the Conservatives at 40.8%. A huge jump for us, a big drop for them, while the NDP sit at a healthy 18.6%.

Now, the movement is entirely within the margin of error, so it could be statistical noise. But if that is the trend, it means Iggy has already started gaining traction back where we desperately needed to. Since the beginning of March we've been facing lower numbers in Ontario, around 30% to 33%. If Nanos holds true, we would have gained that momentum back, momentum more than willing to traded for some drops in the West and Atlantic Canada.

Basic swing on this poll gives the Cons about 145-150 seats, Liberals 95-100, Bloc very low with 40-45 (courtesy of sitting at just 33.8% in Quebec), and the NDP at 25-30. It's not going to change much, but hey, we're the obvious opposition.


  1. As the campaign rolls along and more people get educated on Harpers corrupt and contemptuous style of dictating I think the polls are going to swing big time.

  2. I agree very much, Blue Rods. Very, very much.