Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Blunt Objects' Guide to Surviving Election '11

So your party is faltering in the polls during an election and some uppity moustached social democrat is attempting to take your spot? Never fear! Blunt Objects has a strategy for you to save general face come May 2nd and claw back enough support to fight another day.

1. Ontario matters more than ever.
While the NDP may be thriving everywhere else, they are failing to make their presence felt in a major way in Ontario. However, the issue is that you're not doing very well in Ontario; fix that, and maintain support above 30% and you should be set for around 35 seats, giving you a much needed base and stopping the NDP from making gains in what will be your last stronghold. Bringing out popular heavyweights is a good idea. Keep on it.

2. Write off Quebec minus your base
At this point, Quebec is entirely a write off for your campaign. The NDP and Bloc will battle each other out for this, while you may end up a respectable third with maybe 20% of the vote. Luckily for you, the NDP seem to be concentrating themselves more in traditionally Bloc ridings, meaning your core seats - those nice ones on the West Island - will more than likely remain safe. But some may be a fight. Keep track and if you can keep at the very least 10 seats, 12-14 preferably, you'll be in the game for a bit longer.

3. You're still doing relatively well in the West
Yes, despite the horrifying numbers, you're actually competitive in British Columbia and could make a small dent in Alberta and the Prairies if you keep it up. This may prove helpful, both as a small cushion for you to land on of around 10 seats, and as a possible buffer against further NDP gains at your expense. Push that fact.

4. Work on Atlantic Canada
The biggest problem may come from the Atlantic provinces, where you're ending up a sad third or a sad second in a lot of polls. This may end up being a reality, but remember, these ridings tend to move with an incumbent effect in mind more than anything else (except maybe New Brunswick). Use that, and use this guy's horrible record so far. It will help. Keep between 10-15 seats and you'll be laughing.


Overall, this should net you about 60-75 seats, a drop, but holding enough of a base to be a thorn in the side of both the Conservatives and the NDP. This is a three-way race, you better make it so.

3 comments:

  1. They should also shine a light on some of the candidates.

    "Two candidates running for office are Charmaine Borg in Terrebonne-Blainville and Matthew Dubé in Chambly-Borduas. The two are co-presidents of the McGill NDP club. Mr. Dubé’s posts on Twitter are largely devoted to hockey, comic books and computer games, with the occasional forward of tweets by NDP Leader Jack Layton.

    "Another, Sana Hassainia, who is running for the NDP in Verchères-Les Patriotes, makes no mention on her Twitter page of her NDP connections, except when asked by others to confirm that she is in fact the NDP candidate. "

    Two NDP candidates have gone out for vacation.... one in Ajax-Pickering, the other in. Berthier-Maskinonge. And then there's the separatist, Alexander Boulerice.

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  2. Your analysis seems spot on, Volkov.

    I gravely hope that your party will give you the same respect and attention that they have given Mr. Kinsella and other forward thinkers. ;)

    All the best on Monday.

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  3. Thanks Eric, same to you!

    sharonapple,

    I agree.

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