As Warren Kinsella noted, a new poll out done by Ipsos Reid has pretty much blown any hope that Liberals may have had left.
The poll, done over the same period as that hopeful Ekos poll, shows the Conservatives on a very strong 43% of the vote, the Liberals on a slightly-improved but horrible-in-context 27%, the NDP collapsed at 14%, the Bloc strong at 41% in Quebec, and the Greens at a sad 5%. This poll, with all its regionals calculated in and whatnot, would give the Conservatives with an excess of 170 seats, according to basic swing projections. The Liberals would follow with 65-70 seats, then the Bloc around 50 seats, and the NDP around 20. A strong, scary majority, though thus far the only poll to really give them one.
It's not necessarily all bad news, however. Contrary to what other polls are saying, the Liberals are up in Quebec with 27% of the vote there, much better than the 16-20% most are showing. The Liberals are also up in BC (21%) and Alberta (17%), while struggling with 33% in Ontario, and the same in Atlantic Canada.
For the Conservatives to get this kind of result, they hit the country in all the right places - 48% in BC, 52% in Atlantic Canada, 45% in Ontario. They earned 19% in Quebec, and though that's actually a drop, it's still enough to give them about 10 seats. But its definitely somewhere they can afford the drop.
With these huge numbers in the sweet spots of Canada, the Conservatives are virtually assured a majority. This is the kind of electoral coalition that, for them, leads to success. The question, however, is whether or not they could actually pull it off. Ipsos is showing they can, but I have my doubts. Remember how often we saw these polls back during the 2008 election?
The NDP have some real issues, though. In every region with the exception of Alberta (to an extent, 10% is good for them there), they are severely struggling with support. 22% in BC, 14% in Ontario, 12% in Atlantic Canada, 6% in Quebec - these are not good numbers. Makes you wonder where a lot of the Conservative vote is coming from - Liberals, or Dippers? Or are they taking from the Liberals, and the Dippers are shifting to the Grits to make up the shortfall?
What would have been interesting to see in this poll was where the Conservative surge was coming from in Ontario. Are they really on the warpath in Toronto? Has the Ford effect kicked in? Or are the Liberals hanging on in the GTA, while the Conservatives romp around the rest of the province with ease? Really don't know, and you could make sound arguments for both.
Optimistically, at the very least this poll shows the Liberals in a relatively OK position, especially when compared to something like Abacus. Cheer up, everyone, we're not dead yet.